EU Debate - I am Voting to Leave

[Rook]

I think he was referring to the drag on the political uncertainty given leadership elections etc. The plan was to get on with it and negotiate asap. He is recognising the damage a delay to this has on the UK and the EU (and globally). We dont know the outcome yet as negaotitations havent started. Brexit hasnt happened yet. Its just this uncertainty which affects everything. In short, markets are reflecting huge political uncertainty at the moment, and not an economic crisis.There is a big difference.

As for your airplane analogy. yes thats one way of looking at it but Im not sure it helps with any understanding. You could apply the same logic to those who wanted to remain by saying its like being in a relationship with someone you didnt really like but being scared to leave because you were worried youll never find anyone else!

It was a very negative campaign for remain and contained lots of lies too. Both sides had cringeful aspects.

What are the half formed ideas about what happens next that you refer to? negotiations havent even started yet and cant while the Conservatives continue to play politics with the decision

[uncleglen]

No-one could have had any kind of concrete plan about what to do next because it is an unknown quantity...there will be years of wrangling- It took Greenland 9 years to get agreement over fishing rights after it became independent of Denmark and left the EU. Just goes to show what a grasping, power crazy bunch of loonies we have hopefully left behind.

[Loz]

uncleglen Wrote:

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> No-one could have had any kind of concrete plan about what to do next because it is an unknown

> quantity...there will be years of wrangling- It took Greenland 9 years to get agreement over

> fishing rights after it became independent of Denmark and left the EU. Just goes to show what a

> grasping, power crazy bunch of loonies we have hopefully left behind.

Who? Boris and Gove? I wouldn't write them off just yet.

[Robert Poste's Child]

It certainly looks like Boris - having said he feared Gove would smear him (which in turn makes you wonder what he's got to hide) - is now driving the smear campaign against Gove. I don't get the impression he's stepped down yet. To misquote Amy Winehouse, he only said goodbye with words.

[JoeLeg]

uncleglen Wrote:

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> No-one could have had any kind of concrete plan

> about what to do next because it is an unknown

> quantity...

So you admit we just voted away stability for an 'unknown quantity'? You admit we had no idea what was going to happen? That's a big chance to take given that no one had a plan. I disagree strongly with the idea that the Leave campaign didn't need to have some kind of strategy - they wanted it, they should've been ready for it.

there will be years of wrangling- It

> took Greenland 9 years to get agreement over

> fishing rights after it became independent of

> Denmark and left the EU.

And somehow people think we will automatically get trade agreements within two years?

Just goes to show what a

> grasping, power crazy bunch of loonies we have

> hopefully left behind.

Are you so sure we won't have just replaced them with home-grown power crazy loonies?

[Rook]

"So you admit we just voted away stability for an 'unknown quantity'? You admit we had no idea what was going to happen? That's a big chance to take given that no one had a plan. I disagree strongly with the idea that the Leave campaign didn't need to have some kind of strategy - they wanted it, they should've been ready for it. "

= Its a fact that its an unknown quantity because its a new future. (crap analogy warning....)= You might decide to trade in your partner for a better model. Lets say you are a fresh singleton from today. Much of your new relationship, and what its like will depend on your relative attractiveness and if you are out there actual meeting people and er, talking (!) Sitting in your bedroom crying will get you nowhere, and breed negativity.

It doesnt mean you wont enter a fantastic relationship (or that you are due a terrible one)and its the same for the UK. The plan was to "get out there" immediately but given internal politics (from the Remain camp!) that has been pushed back to Sep time. Political uncertainty is the current drag!

"And somehow people think we will automatically get trade agreements within two years?"

= We just dont know. There is so much sense in striking a good deal for the UK (with Germany for instance given we are a huge market for them). Much of the speed will probably be driven more by politics than anything else. Disintegration risk in the EU is high so they want to deter others, but dont want to cut off their nose to spite their face. Theoretically we could strike deals quickly IF we accepted free flow of people, but this seems very unlikely given immigration was such a huge issue during the referendum. Operating under WTO rules with special dispensation is also an option. This is all why a delay to invoking article 50 looks likely. The powers that be want to "sound out" trade deals to get the vital elements agreed prior to official exit. Even Teresa may said of course the EU will need to accept tariff free terms for the UK. Many think they will have to!

"Are you so sure we won't have just replaced them with home-grown power crazy loonies?"

= Yeah we probably have! In my mind this whole thing has been around choosing the lesser of 2 evils and the same goes for politicians. Has there ever been one the public has truly loved though!

[malumbu]

Thanks for making me laugh rahrahrah with your analagy. Not a lot to laugh about recently, just lots of depression. rahrahrah Wrote:

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> Voting to leave, really isn't voting for anything.

> It's voting against something. That is literally

> all the disparate bunch of miscreants leading the

> leave campaign had in common with each other - the

> fact that they didn't like the EU. Well fine, but

> that is like travelling in a plane that is

> uncomfortable and expensive and has a stop off you

> would prefer not to have to make and so saying [[[[ "i

> don't like this", opening the door and jumping

> out. ]]]

> It's clear that they all have wildly different

> (although universally half formed) ideas about

> what would happen next. It's really not good

> enough. Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is

> today berating the government for not having a

> plan for what would happen post-Brexit. Do none of

> the Leavers feel that perhaps they should have

> been thinking about next moves before encouraging

> us to all jump from that plane?

[Loz]

Seen on Facebook today:

How about we don't leave the EU, but tell Leave voters we have?

They believed all the other lies, after all.

[JoeLeg]

Rook Wrote:

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>

> = Its a fact that its an unknown quantity because

> its a new future. (crap analogy warning....)= You

> might decide to trade in your partner for a better

> model. Lets say you are a fresh singleton from

> today. Much of your new relationship, and what its

> like will depend on your relative attractiveness

> and if you are out there actual meeting people and

> er, talking (!) Sitting in your bedroom crying

> will get you nowhere, and breed negativity.

> It doesnt mean you wont enter a fantastic

> relationship (or that you are due a terrible

> one)and its the same for the UK. The plan was to

> "get out there" immediately but given internal

> politics (from the Remain camp!)

I disagree with the idea that it's the Remain camp who are pushing it back. Firstly Micheal Gove is on favour of delaying, and he's hardly a Remainer. Secondly there are no more politicians being Remainers: they have accepted what they see as the new political reality. The only disagreement is one of how fast we go, and personally I'm glad they're slowing it down - we had no plan, and we need to form one.

that has been

> pushed back to Sep time. Political uncertainty is

> the current drag!

Political AND economic uncertainty, as well as the huge uncertainty over immigration.

>

> "And somehow people think we will automatically

> get trade agreements within two years?"

>

> = We just dont know. There is so much sense in

> striking a good deal for the UK (with Germany for

> instance given we are a huge market for them).

> Much of the speed will probably be driven more by

> politics than anything else. Disintegration risk

> in the EU is high so they want to deter others,

> but dont want to cut off their nose to spite their

> face.

Germany want a good deal, but we need agreement from far more country's than just Germany. While I agree there's no way to predict what will happen, I'm worried that other nations will stick too closely to demands for freedom of movement for the UK to agree.

Theoretically we could strike deals quickly

> IF we accepted free flow of people, but this seems

> very unlikely given immigration was such a huge

> issue during the referendum.

Yet strangely so many people claimed it was about sovereignty or making our own laws. Now it comes out that for many it really was about the foreigners. And now it's a Big Problem. Because no one during the campaign really talked about immigration, about what it might look like if we left, only vague 'promises' (as IDS so arrogantly put it after winning) to 'do something' about it. So a lot of people voted on the basis of what they wanted our immigration policy to be, and are now angry that it might be something else, whatever it turns out to be.

Operating under WTO

> rules with special dispensation is also an option.

> This is all why a delay to invoking article 50

> looks likely. The powers that be want to "sound

> out" trade deals to get the vital elements agreed

> prior to official exit. Even Teresa may said of

> course the EU will need to accept tariff free

> terms for the UK. Many think they will have to!

Andrea Leadsom seems to disagree, and she's about to give May a run for her money. If she becomes our next PM we're in trouble.

>

> "Are you so sure we won't have just replaced them

> with home-grown power crazy loonies?"

>

> = Yeah we probably have! In my mind this whole

> thing has been around choosing the lesser of 2

> evils and the same goes for politicians. Has there

> ever been one the public has truly loved though!

Well, of course you're entitled to your view. I'm of the view that soon this nation will have to face the fact that we made a lot of these problems ourselves, and when we find we can't blame he EU any more, what will we do?

[TheCat]

amusing (well, depending on your viewpoint) video on the reaction to the referendum from some sections of the country...

[steveo]

Morons are ever with us sadly but beware, that presenter works for Infowars, whose Publisher is Alex Jones who is mostly known for a legendary rabid pro gun shout up with Piers Morgan.

It nearly made me like Piers Morgan... but not quite

[Jenny1]

Loz Wrote:

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> Seen on Facebook today:

>

> How about we don't leave the EU, but tell Leave

> voters we have?

>

> They believed all the other lies, after all.

This DID make me laugh. Thanks Loz!

[Rook]

What lies are you referring to?

That they would spend 350m on the NHS? I didnt believe that

I also didnt believe from the Remain camp that it would be impossible to strike a new trade deal, that there would have to be an emergency budget , that interest rates would immediately go up, or that we would be ostracised from Europe, or that everyone would fry alive etc etc

There seems to be a curious expectation that many who voted leave are now certain to be head in hands, crying at their stupidity. Ummmm no, not here or with many others I know (yes educated professionals too!)

Maybe you are all spending too much time laughing at silly memes on facebook. You do know that Facebook is not exactly a true reflection of fact or understanding ? Thats certainly my view given the stuff Ive seen on there - way wide of the mark.

What made me laugh was comments like "I cant believe Farage is in Brussels now" (17 years now is it?) OR "They are all resigning they dont know what they are doing" (when Boris didnt resign he withdrew from nomination as he didnt have enough backing for nomination -and Farage was not official part of Leave campaign, is not an MP, and so was never going to be part of Government anyway).

Markets are reflecting uncertainty yes but i think this is normal no? Im telling you it is as I work within them. Im very much looking forward to the negotiations getting started. Brexit hasnt happened yet.

Have a nice day!

[TheCat]

steveo Wrote:

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> Morons are ever with us sadly but beware, that

> presenter works for Infowars, whose Publisher is

> Alex Jones who is mostly known for a legendary

> rabid pro gun shout up with Piers Morgan.

>

> It nearly made me like Piers Morgan... but not

> quite

>

>

Steveo...yes indeed, most of the infowars stuff is batsh!t crazy...so I agree on treading lightly with that...but the vid I posted I felt was pretty on the money with regards to some people I know!

[Jenny1]

Rook Wrote:

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> > There seems to be a curious expectation that many

> who voted leave are now certain to be head in

> hands, crying at their stupidity. Ummmm no, not

> here or with many others I know (yes educated

> professionals too!)

>

>

Hello Rook! How are you? I hope you have a nice day too!

I don't think that actually (see above). I know some who regret it and others who don't. I happen to sympathise with and agree with the former, and not the latter. I don't use Facebook personally so can't really commit on its overall merits.

[JoeLeg]

Rook Wrote:

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> What lies are you referring to?

> That they would spend 350m on the NHS? I didnt

> believe that

Well a lot of people did. Just because you didn't doesn't make it any less of a lie.

>

> I also didnt believe from the Remain camp that it

> would be impossible to strike a new trade deal,

> that there would have to be an emergency budget ,

> that interest rates would immediately go up, or

> that we would be ostracised from Europe,

We have no idea what kind of trade deal we will strike. Germany today has started taking tough again, and while I agree that's likely a preliminary move by them, akin maybe to trash talking before a sports match, it still reminds us that no one has any idea where this will end.

or that

> everyone would fry alive etc etc

Do you have a link to the Reamin campaign claiming that? 😉

There seems to be a curious expectation that many

> who voted leave are now certain to be head in

> hands, crying at their stupidity. Ummmm no, not

> here or with many others I know (yes educated

> professionals too!)

Well, some people are, most Leave voters aren't. Why sticks in my craw is the fervent belief by Leavers, as epitomised by you, that this automatically means the UK is going to be fine. While I hope it's true, only a fool thinks that we won't encounter any resistance from Europe as we exit. We are a long way from knowing how this will end.

>

> Maybe you are all spending too much time laughing

> at silly memes on facebook. You do know that

> Facebook is not exactly a true reflection of fact

> or understanding ? Thats certainly my view given

> the stuff Ive seen on there - way wide of the

> mark.

The same is could be true of the East Dulwich Forum. And you and me, if we're honest. Again, no one ha any idea where this is heading.

> What made me laugh was comments like "I cant

> believe Farage is in Brussels now" (17 years now

> is it?)

Yeah, some people are bears of very little brain.

OR "They are all resigning they dont know

> what they are doing" (when Boris didnt resign he

> withdrew from nomination as he didnt have enough

> backing for nomination

Extremely debatable. Boris had no plan for winning, and his withdrawal is he end result of that. He never really thought he would be in that position.

-and Farage was not

> official part of Leave campaign, is not an MP, and

> so was never going to be part of Government

> anyway).

Farage is however a very public figure who has been driving for this for many years, and UKIP cannot be separated from the Leave campaign, no matter how hard any of us wish it. He does speak for a lot of people on this country unfortunately.

> Markets are reflecting uncertainty yes but i think

> this is normal no? Im telling you it is as I work

> within them. Im very much looking forward to the

> negotiations getting started. Brexit hasnt

> happened yet.

But will any informal negotiations be allowed before we announce A50? If they are then I feel a lot more confident. If not then I'm worried.

> Have a nice day!

You too.

[Seabag]

Germans are way more organised, it will always be so.

We're now a divided country without a leader, where one half hates Europe, and possibly each other and the strong possibility of a general election ahead

They are way more stable, with an experienced head of state, with a strong manufacturing ethos and the support of the rest of EU

Not the best baseline to come to the table unprepared from

[Rook]

No Im not saying it means we will definitely be fine, Im arguing that it doesnt mean we definitely WONT be fine -which is clearly the suggestion/expectation/conclusion already made by Remainers who are posting the kind of content I responded to. Thats my point. That shouldnt stick in your craw, as we are in agreement re not knowing yet. Maybe it means some are just more positive than others, or understand it better ( which i think shows evidence of being true of both sides)

[titch juicy]

Rook Wrote:

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> No Im not saying it means we will definitely be

> fine, Im arguing that it doesnt mean we definitely

> WONT be fine -which is clearly the

> suggestion/expectation/conclusion already made by

> Remainers who are posting the kind of content I

> responded to. Thats my point. That shouldnt stick

> in your craw, as we are in agreement re not

> knowing yet. Maybe it means some are just more

> positive than others, or understand it better (

> which i think shows evidence of being true of both

> sides)

The rise in verbal and physical racially motivated attacks.

The fall in the pound to lowest levels for 30+ years.

The extreme volatility in world markets.

The fall in NHS applications from overseas doctors (where we have a shortage anyway).

The huge rise in traffic on German job websites from young British (the brain drain seems to be underway already).

The pull back from European academic bodies in collaborative research with UK academic bodies.

The threat of losing European passporting for non-EU overseas funds, threatening London as the most impoertant global financial base.

I'm sure there are other immediate effects, but that should be enough to be going on with.

This isn't fear mongering, this is cold hard fact. This is happening. It wasn't fear-mongering before the vote either. It was expert opinion, which is now manifesting itself in reality. But they told us not to listen to experts eh?

I would say that things definitely aren't fine right now.

Still; Trump, Putin and Le Pen are happy with the outcome and hasn't Farage got a funny rubbery face.

[TheCat]

Rook Wrote:

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> No Im not saying it means we will definitely be

> fine, Im arguing that it doesnt mean we definitely

> WONT be fine -which is clearly the

> suggestion/expectation/conclusion already made by

> Remainers who are posting the kind of content I

> responded to. Thats my point. That shouldnt stick

> in your craw, as we are in agreement re not

> knowing yet. Maybe it means some are just more

> positive than others, or understand it better (

> which i think shows evidence of being true of both

> sides)

Agree with Rook here. The general narrative on the main stream media is that Leave voters are less informed and swallowed the 'lies'. Well what about the Remain voters who have also swallowed the 'lies'? For example, that we will need an emergency budget (not happening), or that the world is going to cave in (not today anyway), or that anyone can accurately forecast GDP PER CAPITA when the population movements are so unpredictable, or that Nandos will have to close its doors in the UK (yep, some people did think that).

My point is, there's stupid people on both sides, and there's well informed people on both sides. If the main stream media and social media treated women, ethnic groups or religious groups the way Leave voters have been collectively grouped they would be regarded as sexist, racist and bigoted. If you want to debate the issues, then fine, but Lets stop putting people in 'buckets, based on hearsay and anecdotes....

[red devil]

titch juicy 1, TheCat 0...

[Earl Aelfheah]

Everyone gets a vote regardless or how informed they may or may not be, however smart / stupid they might be, prejudiced or not etc. etc. It's democracy and the vote is for us to leave. Now we need to work out how what we're going to do having 'flipped the bird' to the worlds second largest economy, think about rebuilding bridges and exploring new opportunities elsewhere. I think the whole exercise has been incredibly destructive and foolish, but the decision has been made and we now need to start taking action to stem the damage.

[Seabag]

Maybe it's simpler to say this

If you knew before what you know now

That the substantial claims to redirect funds to the NHS were false

That the two campaigns to leave were actually 'one'

That the PM, Johnson, Farrage would walk

That the game was mostly a power struggle within the Tory party

That Farrage and his claims were right-wing fear mongering

That no-one from leave had a plan, or even a sketch of what might be ahead

That the voters would vote the same? All 17 million odd

[titch juicy]

rahrahrah Wrote:

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> Everyone gets a vote regardless or how informed

> they may or may not be, however smart / stupid

> they might be, prejudiced or not etc. etc. It's

> democracy and the vote is for us to leave. Now we

> need to work out how what we're going to do having

> 'flipped the bird' to the worlds second largest

> economy, think about rebuilding bridges and

> exploring new opportunities elsewhere. I think the

> whole exercise has been incredibly destructive and

> foolish, but the decision has been made and we now

> need to start taking action to stem the damage.

Or drag it out with endless to-ing & fro-ing, posturing from the UK and the EU and legal challenges, while the damage piles up higher and higher and enough people eventually realise what a huge mistake it's all been, ending with the government not invoking Article 50 and giving us a slap on the wrists and telling us not to be so silly next time.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Seabag Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Maybe it's simpler to say this

>

> If you knew before what you know now

>

> That the substantial claims to redirect funds to

> the NHS were false

>

> That the two campaigns to leave were actually

> 'one'

>

> That the PM, Johnson, Farrage would walk

>

> That the game was mostly a power struggle within

> the Tory party

>

> That Farrage and his claims were right-wing fear

> mongering

>

> That no-one from leave had a plan, or even a

> sketch of what might be ahead

>

> That the voters would vote the same? All 17

> million odd

I'm not convinced that a second referendum today would get a wildly different result. People weren't voting for something, they were voting against something. Many don't like the EU (or what they think the EU is). Many don't like immigration (or what they think immigration means). They weren't asked to think about an alternative, they were given a binary choice. For or against. Asked the same question, many (regrettably) would answer 'against'. It should never have gone to a referendum in the first place imo, but again, it's kind of a moot point now.