Gulf oil spill

[katie1997]

HAL9000 Wrote:

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It's official: Top Kill plan has failed. Next

W-ell.........its LMRP now - deployment of a lower marine riser package (eg. a containment system - who makes up these terms? - to cut and remove the damaged riser from the blow-out preventer*).

Lets hope it works.

*(BOP)

[DJKillaQueen]

Saw aerial footage of the Louisiana coast today. It's heart breaking.

[expat]

yes let us hope it works.

Does anybody know if the recent ban on deep sea drilling also encompasses the relief well(s)? I hope not.

[SeanMacGabhann]

But Hal, you as good as said on May 4th on this thread that people were overreacting, it needed to be put in perspective and, essentially, everything was cool!!

[DJKillaQueen]

It's on course to be the worst spill America has known, and there are suggestions that BP played down the scale of it. One report I saw even said thew cost of the clean up and conpensation etc could ruin BP, but how do you conpensate the lost and damaged sea life....not to mention the 11 who died?

Oil is going to run out one day anyway....is deep sea drilling really worth the risk.....and should BP and other oil companies just accept the inevitable - that we need to switch to other means of energy sooner rather than later?

[HAL9000]

SeanMacGabhann Wrote:

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> But Hal, you as good as said on May 4th on this

> thread that people were overreacting,

I think most sensible people would agree that the blog cited by the OP was, and remains, an overreaction.

> it needed to be put in perspective and,

Yes - this spill, even now, and at a worst-case flow rate (say 1 to 1.5 million barrels so far), is still smaller than the 3 million barrels released into the Gulf of Mexico by the Ixtoc spill in 1980 and far less than the 10 million barrels of the 1991 Persian Gulf spill.

On the geological time scale the oceans have probably consumed billions of barrels of naturally liberated petroleum.

> essentially, everything was cool!!

I don't see where I said that.

Nevertheless, the underlying reservoir holds an estimated 50 million barrels in total - even if all of it were released (unlikely as the pressure is relieved) it'll cause a hell of a mess in the short term but the oil would eventually dissipate and degrade ? it?s not the end of the world.

[katie1997]

DJKillaQueen Wrote:

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> It's on course to be the worst spill America has

> known, and there are suggestions that BP played

> down the scale of it. One report I saw even said

> thew cost of the clean up and conpensation etc

> could ruin BP, but how do you conpensate the lost

> and damaged sea life....not to mention the 11 who

> died?

IMO you cannot compensate for this, its a very tragic accident.

> Oil is going to run out one day anyway....is deep

> sea drilling really worth the risk.....and should

> BP and other oil companies just accept the

> inevitable - that we need to switch to other means

> of energy sooner rather than later?

Fair point although most 'oil' companies are already operating as 'energy' companies and they have a good understanding of the need for alternatives (meanwhile keeping the lights on).

There has been a lot of investment and R&D by these companies into advanced energy technologies (like fuel cells, photovoltaics, better battery technology, advanced biofuels) as well as looking at energy efficiency and consumer behaviour/understanding.

[katie1997]

HAL9000 Wrote:

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> SeanMacGabhann Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > But Hal, you as good as said on May 4th on this

> > thread that people were overreacting,

>

> I think most sensible people would agree that the

> blog cited by the OP was, and remains, an

> overreaction.

I think Sean may mean that your original comments didn't appear to be referring to that blog? Apologies if I'm mistaken.

> On the geological time scale the oceans have

> probably consumed billions of barrels of naturally

> liberated petroleum.

Hydrocarbons have formed over (geological) time in certain conditions.

Everything depends on their maturity and the structures they are contained in (pore spaces in rocks to put it simply).

> Nevertheless, the underlying reservoir holds an

> estimated 50 million barrels in total - even if

> all of it were released (unlikely as the pressure

> is relieved) it'll cause a hell of a mess in the

> short term but the oil would eventually dissipate

> and degrade ? it?s not the end of the world.

Are you by any chance a reservoir engineer? If so then you won't know much about geology* so I won't need to retract my comments above.

*I don't really mean that btw ;-)

[HAL9000]

katie1997 - I suppose I could have made it clearer: my 'perspective' above was relative to the cited blog.

Also, just to clarify again, I meant that, over the aeons - through natural erosion or seismic or tectonic forces - countless oil-reservoirs have seeped into the oceans where a rich diversity of microorganisms has evolved to feast on such serendipity thereby restoring the equilibrium. In other words, the oceans are adept at dealing with oil spills.

BTW, I studied geology in the 60s during the MOHO Project (I?m sure you know all about Mohorovicic?s discontinuity ? it laid the ground work for endeavours such as Deep Horizon). My tutor was senior lecturer at the Geological Museum in London. One of my first positions was as a mining share analyst (Kaffirs and Kangaroos) with a city stockjobber. I once had a large mineral and fossil collection, too :)

[katie1997]

Hal - blimey, how patronising I must have sounded re: hydrocarbon formation but at least you probably 'got' my (dated in-joke) reference to reservoir engineers not understanding geology ;-)

Yes, I know about the Moho but not so much about the 1960s project I'm afraid.

I don't fully understand your point (quoted below) so think we'll have to agree to disagree on the GoM oil spill and subsequent pollution (I'm no expert on sedimentary or structural geol):

PS. I will admit to having a fossil collection (somewhere) although its hardly museum quality :))

[HAL9000]

The Moho Project was an unsuccessful US deep-sea drilling operation to reach the crust/mantle boundary by drilling through a few miles of Pacific seabed between 1958 and 1966.

Re: the oil spill - from the immediate human point of view it is everything you say it is but in terms of earth's geological history it will leave hardly a trace ? a mere drop in the ocean of time.

[DJKillaQueen]

Hmm the US is now going to sue BP.....and given that 60% of BP's business is with America the end could be in sight for them. This one might just cost too much not to mention that pretty much every pension scheme in the UK is invested in BP. Oh joy lol.

[HAL9000]

Corporate Risk Management 101

Rule 1: It is a good idea to organise each self-contained risk exposure as a wholly owned limited liability corporation - especially when one decides to insure one?s self.

[SaveShambo]

interesting article in the paper at the weekend highlighting the difference in reaction and awareness to these environmental spills - according to this report the same amount of oil that has been spilled so far in the gulf is equal to the amount that is spilled ANNUALY in the Niger delta region through leaking infrastructure and sabotage, with very little action to clean it up - life expectancy is apparently around 40 due to the health effects.

[katie1997]

HAL9000 Wrote:

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> The Moho Project was an unsuccessful US deep-sea

> drilling operation to reach the crust/mantle

> boundary by drilling through a few miles of

> Pacific seabed between 1958 and 1966.

Thanks for that Hal.

> Re: the oil spill - from the immediate human point

> of view it is everything you say it is but in

> terms of earth's geological history it will leave

> hardly a trace ? a mere drop in the ocean of time.

W-ell yes but....we could say that about any natural disaster if we compared it against the geological timescale which is too vast to be of use here (IMO), especially if we're talking about mitigation in our lifetime.

Relative to geological time a human's life expectancy equates to 0.55 seconds out of a 12-month calendar. So if we compressed geological time into 12 months the industrial revolution would just begin as the clock strikes midnight on 31 December. So by that rationale (if this was the lounge, I'd link to John Travolta and Samuel L Jackson's "filthy animals" debate ;-)) and perspective, if there are any major disasters then yes, the planet would eventually rebuild itself as you say. As it has done before we arrived eg. mass extinctions, meteorite bombardment but now we're here it would be good to try to prevent/mitigate disasters.

Interesting to see that the drilling contractor's claims of limited liability are now being questioned by the US govt. The capping of the spill not looking likely and the containment relief wells won't be ready till Aug. They are now worried about the impact of weather - winds and potential start of the Hurricane season spreading the spill.

[katie1997]

SaveShambo Wrote:

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> interesting article in the paper at the weekend

> highlighting the difference in reaction and

> awareness to these environmental spills -

> according to this report the same amount of oil

> that has been spilled so far in the gulf is equal

> to the amount that is spilled ANNUALY in the Niger

> delta region through leaking infrastructure and

> sabotage, with very little action to clean it up -

> life expectancy is apparently around 40 due to the

> health effects.

Yes I heard that too - very good point.

[wjfox]

How far could the oil spill spread? A rather scary video -

Those who dismissed the link I posted at the start of this thread may want to watch this.

[expat]

It also says: Disclaimer They are not a forecast of where the oil will go

So far the so-called Top-Hat is working at least partly. Here is hoping it will truely work.

The relief wells are due in August but that is weeks away.

[katie1997]

wjfox Wrote:

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> How far could the oil spill spread? A rather scary

> video -

>

>

>

> Those who dismissed the link I posted at the start

> of this thread may want to watch this.

wjfox - I don't think your original link was dismissed, its a great thread for discussion and its really good to hear everyone's opinions (even if not everyone agrees all the time).

I really do hope the measures work soon.

[expat]

looks like they are getting 10.000 barrels a day for now:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/us_and_canada/10248409.stm

[silverfox]

wjfox Wrote:

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> How far could the oil spill spread? A rather scary

> video -

>

>

>

> Those who dismissed the link I posted at the start

> of this thread may want to watch this.

Thanks wjfox. I've now watched this three times and am still sceptical. I can't take anything posted on youtube seriously. All I see is pretty colours and patterns. Who made this 'computer model'? Was anyone other than painting by numbers enthusiasts involved? I suspect you don't know.

[HAL9000]

Actually, the source is cited on YouTube, just below the video - it says:

04 June 2010 ? A detailed computer modeling study released today indicates that oil from the massive spill in the Gulf of Mexico might soon extend along thousands of miles of the Atlantic coast and open ocean as early as this summer. The modeling results are captured in a series of dramatic animations produced by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and collaborators.

However, the caption within the video states that the animation represents the dilution factor of continuously injected dye 20 metres below the surface.

This does not appear to take into account that:

a) the viscosity of petroleum exposed to air increases over time because the lighter fractions evaporate,

b) aromatic and some light hydrocarbons are slightly soluble in water so dissolve out fairly quickly,

c) volume decreases in proportion to factors a and b,

d) many other significant factors that are ignored by this particular model.

Also, once the oil forms a tar-like mass, its toxicity drops dramatically because only insoluble bitumen and waxes remain.

[Easties EL]

The Gulf oil spill is the tip of the iceberg (pardon the pun) on how ****** the planet is with mistakes of pollution waste, nuclear waster, plastic rubbish ending up on coast line beaches, and so on and so on. Fining BP ain't going to solve nothing. Obama giving a speech on how BP messed up isn't going solve nothing. If there was only a re-set button, so we could start again, maybe, just maybe then, things could alright, till then. **** me, it's ******!

This planet should of started using enviroment friendly engergy sources and products decades ago. Why we haven't, **** knows?

[Marmora Man]

Easties EL - even if you were right, which I don't believe, your contribution adds nothing to the debate. No ideas, alternatives or solutions.

I consider US political rhetoric to be way over the top, their desire to blame it all on BP is childish - the drilling operation and hundreds of other similar rigs & technology were approved by the US administration. Oil leaks such as this can appear dramatic but, ultimately, have little if any impact on wildlife and the natural environment.

I am pleased that technology has found a partial solution to contain and reduce the leak until BP can drill another well or two to reduce the pressure and stop this leak. It's a small example of man's ability to think and act to defeat even the biggest problems.

[katie1997]

I tend to agree here (where serious issues are concerned). Same with wikipedia - I'm very dubious of the 'facts' on there esp. on anything technical/scientific.

I don't know the answer to this but I'm guessing it was because we didn't understand the issues as much as we do now and that environmentally friendly energy sources and products hadn't been invented/developed/economically viable/understood yet?

It'll take a few days for the oil & gas flow rates to stabilise in order to estimate how much will be captured by the containment system.