Dramatic downturn in new flat market

[SeanMacGabhann]

Yep there was an old railway line - depending which path you take you can come out near.. .you know what I'm going to start a thread about the woods as I have a story to tell as well

[Domitianus]

Hate to bring it up again but - further bad news in the Spanish, American and Irish housing markets. Also recent interest rate increases. Caveat emptor!

[meimeiloh]

Hi guys!

My first time on the forum, I love all the gossip and stuff about ED!

Anyway, it may sate your curiosity to know that I've actually bought and live in one of the flats in DKH!

I'm actually really happy there, we were originally looking for a period conversion but were let down twice by property developers which was really costly so we decided to broaden our search a little. I concede there are elements of DKH that aren't perfect - obviously there are some nasty kids that hang around Dog Kennel Hill and although it's being regenerated now, it wont improve overnight. But my partner and I loved the actual build and if it was, for exmple, in a better location then we simply would not have been able to afford it. Also, the adventure playground is national trust which means that the stunning view from my lounge and bedroom will never be obscured by someone else's house! The finish inside DKH is extremely high quality, admittedly you pay through the nose for it but it's all oak panelling, recessed lighting, full height double glazing and two South-Facing balconies. There are two bathrooms and it's pretty spacious for a couple. It's not for everyone but we are totally in love with the place! The views accross ED to Crystal Palace and beyond are absolutely gorgeous and it's quite quiet despite being off a main road.

Anyway, just wanted to add my input. I am a huge fan of period housing and our next move will probably be to somewhere more traditional but for the moment, can't recommend DKH enough!

I haven't been into GV15 but my boyfriend is an interior designer and he reckons the finish looks a little cheap. Plus as mentioned before, they are right next to the train tracks which must be a bit noisy.

[Brendan]

The one thing I prefer about new builds is you have less chance of ghosts. I know this sounds strange but if you are the kind of person who sees these things (and would rather not) they can be an annoyance. I lived in a Victorian conversion on Goodrich road a few years back and it was riddled with the bloody things.

[Xanadustar]

Wow Brenden, do share....

[SeanMacGabhann]

Thanks for the update on the flats meimeiloh (on topic Mr Administrator) - now pull up a chair and let's hear Brendan's story (hopefully on another thread in The Lounge!)

[Brendan]

I will start another thread in the Lounge so as not to get this one sent there.

[ruffers]

meimeiloh Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I've actually bought and live in one of the flats

> in DKH!

>

Good to hear that the finish is what they promised. When I looked at them it was still a building site, hard hats and all and the projected spec looked great. Same as siduhe though, I was told one price and then it was another which at the time seemed high - how many flats are occupied now?

[meimeiloh]

Hi Ruffers, yeah, the prices do vary depending on the location of the flat (upper floors, for example, are more expensive) plus price also depends on whether you require a parking space. In addition, I believe off plan prices usually change once building is complete and also depend on the housing market as well.

As far as I can tell regarding how many flats are occupied, there are new people moving in every other day and I think there are about two left.

They are expensive! But so lovely :)

[meimeiloh]

Oh and just one last thing - I didn't mean to make a sweeping generalisation about the kids around here - most of them seem quite nice. As always, there are always a couple that spoil it for the rest of them...

[Muttley]

I'm taking a morbid interest in the progress of the great GV15 sale. As I came out of ED station today I noticed the rather forlorn-looking banner draped over the building says "Last few remaining". Hmm, what does 'last few' mean? I wondered. So I've just checked on Hamptons, and it would seem that 8 are 'under offer' (none 'Sold' yet apparently) and 7 aren't. So 'last few' means 'just under half' in estate-agent speak. Anyway, good news is that if you've got ?385k to spare there's still a two bed flat available, and there's still an empty shop awaiting the next Starbucks wannabe (or even the real thing).

[krosfyah]

hahaha 2 left? You have got to be kidding me. I live round the corner from DKH and it is EMPTY. According to the DKH sales site it says every unit is currently available which would tally with the lack of people i see in that monstrosity every day. There is one flat that has some chairs on the balcony and one Ikea bought pot plant stood outside. It looks dead. I wouldn;t be at all surprised if "meimeiloh" was an EA or connected to the development in some way.

DKH has a fundamental problem - it is built around one of the worst estates in the area - if anyone is from SE5 you should know the "Dog Kennel Hill" gang that lives around the estates surrounding that area. Pick up the South London Press and you will see them mentioned from time to time. Those "children" you mention are running some serious gang activity. Not all of them, naturally, but there is a well known and defined gang problem in that area. I have had to call the police several times for muggings and beat downs, as well as seen roving gangs of older teenagers to 20 somethings - and when i say gangs i mean in excess of 10-12 people.

Trust me, you know there is a problem when police are pulling over Hummers late at night in an area like that, and the hood bird as we commonly refer to the police helicopter buzzes over the estate regularly.

As an aside, i have lived in that area, right near DKH for more than 4 years.

[mixulee]

haha meimeiloh - so clearly an EA. Very funny.

[Jeremy]

I don't mind the DKH flats so much, I just think they're stupidly overpriced. There are perfectly good 2 bed period conversions in ED for around the 300k mark, which offer more living space than these places.

[meimeiloh]

Hi! Oh no, do I really sound like an estate agent?!? Well, I'm not going to vehemently deny it as I'm sure it would just fuel your suspisions even further... I'm not though.

I can see why you might think it from reading what I've written as I have been going on about how great it is!! I guess the main reason I'm so OTT about the place is that it took me almost TEN MONTHS to buy a flat in East Dulwich. This was due to going to exchange stage on two previous properties then losing out on both which cost a great deal of money and time, not to mention stress and disappointment. Actually guys, just to warn you, the first flat that we actually exchanged on (on Lordship Lane) was from a rogue property developer called MR. NOLAN from MYN PROPERTIES. I am still reeling from his diabolical behaviour. He forced us into a contract race then, once we had exchanged, I accidentally found out that the 28 square metre 'roof terrace' at the property didn't have planning permission and in fact had received numerous complaints from neighbours. Luckily, we were able to withdraw from the sale just in time. Had we not, we would probably be living there now, unable to use our outside space. So steer well clear.

Anyway, in reply to the various bits and pieces above: I have met about nine of my neighbours and I'm pretty sure most of the flats are occupied. The DKH website doesn't seem very up to date, it's said that all of the flats are empty since the launch.

As for the gangs, it's unfortunate but every 'up and coming' area takes time to improve and I'm hoping the regeneration project along with the expansion of new flats along this area will help to improve things.

I don't know much about GV15 but it just looks a bit pokey and too near the train line to me.

[Michael Palaeologus]

I lived next to the Dog Kennel Hill Estate for 15 years plus and never experienced any problems. Whatever happened seemed to stay within the Estate.

I can understand the elation of FINALLY finding a place to hang your hat!

[meimeiloh]

Thanks Michael, it's great having a home!

[snorky]

Hmm.....theres a distict "Moxony" smell about this thread.......

[Muttley]

Thought I'd just revisit this thread six months on. According to Hamptons, of the GV15 flats next to ED station, eight are sold, one is under offer, five are unsold - barely any change since this thread started. The unsold ones include one two bedroom flat that is on for what seems an outrageously optimistic ?395k.

What this means is that it was indeed sometime around the beginning of July that the market for newbuild flats in East Dulwich suddenly hit a wall.

My prediction is that house prices in the area will stay stagnant for a while as sellers hold out for the sort of prices that were achievable in the 'old days'. Then we'll start seeing prices drop by 10%+ all over the place. Remember that house/flat prices in East Dulwich went up by something like 20% from late 06 to late 07, so even a 20% fall will only take us back to the still dizzy heights of 2006.

And frankly, for 90% of local home owners and 100% of people wanting to buy their first home, a signficant fall in house prices would be a good thing.

[Michael Palaeologus]

If new people cannot get into the market because the price of smaller flats is beyond them then the prices must drop. I think this will be a settling rather than a massive drop. I dont see a massive fall as economic conditions generally dont justify it - i.e. the banks may be feeling a bit twitchy about the credit they have given but there is no mass unemployment. When people can afford to buy, they will. The prices being asked for the GV15 flats are just ludicrous. The development was undertaken just a little too late in the economic cycle I think.

[mikese22]

Muttley Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> What this means is that it was indeed sometime

> around the beginning of July that the market for

> newbuild flats in East Dulwich suddenly hit a

> wall.

or maybe it just means the flats are really ugly and too close to the railway....?

[MrBen]

Urggg. I keep reading these house price threads and try to avoid them but this one is current and is luring me in like an old man with a bag of sweeties saying "come and see my puppies".

I take a more optimistic long term view which is that:

- Yes values will fall a bit but this is healthy and inevitable. And a real crash only happens when people start defaulting on mortgages. With interest rates still relatively low and City predicting a further cuts I dont see this happening in 2008 as mortgages are still generally affordable. As long as the economic fundamentals remain of course.

- Even if we head into recession (v. likely) ED will still be a highly desirable place to live and is if you pardon the pun, is streets ahead of where it was in the 1992 recession. Good, established areas like Battersea in '92 only took a 15% hit then soon recovered. We are in that league now. Take a long term view and I firmly believe property here will be a safe bet - the area has so many great things about it. And this is London. Greatest city in the world. After Edinburgh of course.

- A time like this is actually full of opportunities if you know what you are doing. Not many buyers, everyone is taking offers - so try your luck. As for GV15, ?275K for a 1 bed with no garden overlooking train tracks is ridiculous. Any numpty can see that. So those who like them should be throwing the developers an offer. You might get lucky.

- Quite a few of the bad estate agents will lose their jobs and will seek the traditional refuge that is becoming a travel rep / timeshare salesman / recruitment consultant. Great unless you have just booked an all inclusive to benidorm / need a new job in which case you will have to face the suckers all over again.

[Jeremy]

Yep, the GV15 flats are pokey, and in a nasty location overlooking the train line - and they're over priced. That's why they haven't sold.

[Keef]

To be fair, I live even closer to a train line than these flats are, and I hardly even notice it, and definitely am not disturbed by it. We don't even have double glazing either.

I'd live there if they were cheaper.

[AnotherPaul]

On the corner of Overhill and Underhill stands an empty new build with 4 or 6 flats - can't be bothered to check.

I saw them on the market last summer, on Wates website resplendent in their suspicion tickling super wide-lense shots.

Tiny batchelor pads as found all over Hackney, dropped into ED opposite Camberwell Cemetery was not the best idea it seems. However, something needs to be done with them, office, sqaut or wrecking ball? - you decide.