Dramatic downturn in new flat market

[Muttley]

There, I thought that would get you interested.

Out of curiosity, I just inspected the Hamptons website. They (among others) are trying to sell the two prominent new SE22 developments, "GV15" (by the station) and "DKH" (the one up dog kennel hill). A quick count up suggests that about half of GV15 remain unsold, while only two of DKH are sold. Have buyers finally decided to call the estate agents' bluff? Is this the beginning of the end, or merely the end of the beginning?

Funny how, when times are rosy, one can be enticed by a description like this...: "Swamped in light from dawn ?til dusk and lording it over Dulwich from its hillside perch, DKH literally shimmers in the sunshine." But when things turn down, you suddenly realise you've paid half a million quid for a flat that looks out over Sainsbury's car park one way, and a council estate the other. (Or, in the case of GV15, a flat with William Hill on one side, a busy railway on the other, and an empty shop underneath.)

[Domitianus]

Interesting! I don't wish to be a prophet of gloom but I have pointed out a few times before on this board that some informed analysts are maming uncomfortable sounds about the global housing market. We shall see.

[macroban]

> "GV15" (by the station)

The Toilet Block?

[jim_the_chin]

it's all gone a bit dead, i started at the 700k level about 6 months ago, has got down to the 400k's and by the sounds of it has started going even lower.

i'm not an agent i've just been looking to move for the past 6 months and watching things get slower and slower.

[lordship_bod]

but surely new build flats are smaller than the period conversions that ED has to offer? judging by the agents windows these are still going for a fair whack of cash...

[Amelie]

Without wishing to sound like a braggart, I bought my 1 bed flat at the Harvester end of ED 4 years ago for ?155K. I had it valued a few weeks ago as I was thinking about moving and was told by 3 of the local agents that I could sell it for ?250K with ease. Great news for me in terms of equity but utterly ridiculous when looked at coolly. On top of which to get another similar flat I would have to spend ?250K, in this area which is where I want to be, and even more if I wanted a garden (which I do).

[lordship_bod]

You see, this is exactly what i'm talking about. period conversions are still selling like hot cakes. out of interest, has anyone actually visited a "GV15" or a "DKH" show flat?

[LostThePlot]

lordship_bod Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> You see, this is exactly what i'm talking about.

> period conversions are still selling like hot

> cakes. out of interest, has anyone actually

> visited a "GV15" or a "DKH" show flat?

A Friend has visited the GV15 flats, and they are looking at Circa ?260k for them. From what he said they are quite narrow, running the width of the building, so you can choose to look at the bookies, or go trainspotting, as your desires take you.

Taking Amelie's point. I bought my flat in 1993 (In Wimbledon) for ?37k (Sorry!) and last valuation made me laugh "You'll never get someone to pay that will you?" I asked. "Many times over" came the reply. But as mentioned. If you look at it in the harsh light of day, ignoring the marketing bo**ocks, then all the prices are stupidly inflated.

[Jeremy]

I've been to the GV15 flats. The asking price for the 2 bed ones was ?355k-?385k, and as LostThePlot says, the 1 beds are in the upper-mid 200s range.

They are actually quite nicely finished, and I loved the huge windows (shame they look over a railway track). But they all have pretty small "open plan" kitchen and living rooms. You really don't get a lot of space for the money... although you do get two good size double bedrooms.

[Michael Palaeologus]

I acant help thinking that people are just in a position to chose now - with lots of more or less identical new builds going up in South London. The market I suspect will slow rather than crash.

Why pay a big wedge for a flat in railway cuttings when you can get somewhere virtually the same with a better position for the same money?

The ones at the top of the hill always did lokk a bit questionable. They look like storgae containers stacked on top of each other - I presume the flats run front to back and so the size will be small and the balconys look tiny.

[spirit]

I read this with interest,

I've had a look at DKH, the ones I saw were two floors with 2 bedrooms on the upper floor, one mezzanine style that looks out over the downstairs and out to Sainsbury's car park,and the youth centre? / basketball court. By day with those huge windows, (which is basically one huge window spanning uninterrupted from the ground to the upstairs level because of the mezzanine balcony) anyone shooting a hoop could see pretty much straight into the bedroom and the downstairs. Then there's another bedroom, which is more private but neither has any storage, no built in wardrobes and not much space to put any either. On the whole they felt very small and a bit gimmicky, I got the impression they were built as a 2nd home, city weekday crash pad for wealthy types with a penchant for minimalism, so a very specific market and one which when you think of it would probably want to be geographically closer to the City. When I looked around someone pointed out that there wasn't any room in the kitchen for a washing machine - but I thought that perhaps they would have a communal laundry area in the basement (like New York apartments) although I didn't ask - I went as part of the bash at the finish of the build, not to purchase... they do have underground parking though which is a bonus.

We have a 2 bed garden Victorian conversion and it has leaped up in value since we bought it, although we've had to do a lot to it, but I expect it will reach its maximum value. I say that and then it goes up again so.... period properties here are still doing really well I think and are still much in demand, new builds are harder to get right and often the land or location available in areas like this isn't great to begin with and would have made a better park or local square etc.

[*Bob*]

One of the things ED is noted for is its (fairly) uniform period properties. It's one of the reasons people like the place.

As a consequence I think there is less of a market for 'luxury' new builds which cost the same or more as a nice period conversion. (There is a demand for affordable housing but then that aint so profitable hmmm)

As above, location is everything, and there are similar properties in nicer spots then this block. Let's be honest, apart from the fact it's handy for the station, it's in a pretty grotty stretch.

I'm reminded of the article (somebody posted it up here some time ago) about the writer who came to 'East Dulwich', but basically just got out at the station, walked up Dog Kennel Hill and back and declared it to be a dump. Unfortunately I think a lot of prospective buyers will come from outside of the area - and they may do the same.

[Jeremy]

Also, I've noticed that the Hayes Grove properties have not been re-selling well. Probably something to do with the cramped interior, possibly also because new build properties can start to look dated very quickly.

[Tom]

It makes me wonder if the goverments new drive to build new homes will sadly backfire as it did with the 70's push into towerblocks.

What people want a good sizes houses with character in a convenient location for a sensible price. Doesn't sound much - but is increasingly impossible to find in and around London.

Cramming too many people into high density areas in flawed locations is never an good idea.

[lozzyloz]

The flat market is certainly starting to look iffy. I know a couple of buy to letter's in the area having problems with disposal.Track falling property prices

[lordship_bod]

It doesnt surprise me that period conversions do considerably better than new builds - i moved here specifically for a period conversion as out east (where i was before) they are pretty much non-existent. I'm surprised to hear that the buy to let market isnt doing to0 great around here - i though all young trendy professionals wanted to live in ED? ;-)

[macroban]

By how much would prices have to drop before a significant number of young people would have negative equity?

[Keef]

Heh hh heh

[Amelie]

The new build that went up where the TA barracks used to be on London Road has a set of 'To Let' signs outside it, presumably the expensive flats there were bought by the BTL crowd. I don't know how much joy they are having trying to find tenants.

[macroban]

No glasses!

I mis-read that as BLT purchasers.

Not all risks taken for profit work out.

Perhaps there will be some distress sales.

[Serendipity]

I live in a new build in the area, and i'm rather satisfied with it, well specified, reasonable high ceilings (which are a common problem with new builts). It has risen in value, but I am conscious that new builts have got less character and upside potential than victorian properties for example. Among the plus points new built properties are relatively low maintenance and do not need to have roof, pipes, etc done in the first few years...and can avoid you the pain of being in a chain (I completed and exchanged in less than 20 days)

These new blocks in ED, even if well specified, are not very well located for the buyers that were targeted.

are property prices crashing in dulwich : check that website

www.propertysnake.co.uk, on the whole it more looks as if those properties which have trouble selling have been overvalued in the first place.

[Jeremy]

I don't think the market is *crashing*, but it's certainly not as busy as it was in early spring. As Serendipity said, a lot of places were overvalued, and some sellers/agents/developers have really been taking the p!ss with their asking prices. And there are a lot of flats on the market right now, some have been on for quite a while... buyers are in a position to drive a hard bargain at the moment.

[Siduhe]

Jeremy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> > As Serendipity said, a lot of places were

> overvalued, and some sellers/agents/developers

> have really been taking the p!ss with their asking

> prices.

Couldn't agree more. We went to see DKH towards the end of the build, really liked it, but when we started to discuss prices with the agent the following week, we were told they'd gone up by between 30k and 80k (depending on the size of the flat). No real explanation given even when we pressed the agent with prices achieved on other similar sites in and around SE London. We formed a view that the developers had a totally unrealistic expectation of what they could achieve on that site, and started looking elsewhere (successfully - though at the other end of Lordship Lane). Interesting to see the DKH prices appear to have come down to pretty much the original level now.

[SeanMacGabhann]

And be honest Siduhe... the upper east side where you have landed is much better - the library, the woods, the park...

:)-D

[Siduhe]

"Upper East Side" - brilliant, must remember that...and yup, we're pretty happy on the ED / Forest Hill border.

Discovered Dulwich / Sydenham Hill Wood last weekend almost by accident and had a very pleasant ramble around. Sorry if this is OT but I couldn't work out if it follows an old railway or tram line, or just the line of a stream? I'm guessing railway from the large tunnel at the Sydenham end.

Woods