Voting to remain

[numbers]

Quids, medic, LM, you're all losing your touch.

[Jeremy]

If we leave the EU, then what becomes of UKIP? Will they try to re-establish the empire?

[????]

Loz Wrote:

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> If we vote for Brexit, I guarantee you that the UK

> will still sign up for TTIP. Which rather

> nullifies everything in Jah's post.

To be honest, Jah's post is way too much in the CT nutter camp for me anyway

[Alan Medic]

numbers Wrote:

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> Quids, medic, LM, you're all losing your touch.

Some of us work numbers.

[Jah Lush]

???? Wrote:

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> Loz Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > If we vote for Brexit, I guarantee you that the

> UK

> > will still sign up for TTIP. Which rather

> > nullifies everything in Jah's post.

>

>

> To be honest, Jah's post is way too much in the CT

> nutter camp for me anyway.

I have to say I'm inclined to agree with you on that. I'm more for than against. I'd be loath to be in the same camp as the xenophobic nutters of UKIP, Boris and that useless schmuck Gove. I was just curious to know what a few EDF'ers thought about it. It's all a bit Colonel Blimp for me.

[Earl Aelfheah]

There was a good debate on Radio 4's 'Any Answers', re. Brexit this weekend.

[Blah Blah]

'we are in trade defeceit with the EU we are actually more important to them than us'

This is just not the case ???? (re importance). We are not special at all. If we leave the EU we will not be able to escape trade tariffs as the out campaign seem to think. So what if Germany sell cars to us. They cannot negotiate a free trade deal with us because they will still be in the EU. This is what the out campaigners fail to understand. Membership buys us access to that market, and the benefits it brings. Leave, and to still have access to that market we will have to pay for it. Those who negotiate EU trade agreements have all said the same thing. There is no way that the 26 other member states will tolerate us leaving and still having access to trade on free terms - just no way at all - and Germany will be powerless to do anything about it.

And the significance of what both Obama and Clinton have both said, is that the out campaign seems to think we can replace that trade (if the door is kept closed to us) with trade to countries like America. But America has said that won't happen. And whilst we are in the wilderness of withdrawal, and uncertainty of just what trade agreements we can salvage etc, what do you suppose will happen to confidence in our economy. Investment is already an an all time low.

[TheArtfulDogger]

Blah Blah Wrote

>

> The cost of membership is a fraction of our GDP,

> and is paid back in spades, both in grants and in

> the ?200bn exports that membership of the EU

> enables us to sell.

....

>

> And then of course there's the people kept in jobs

> by the ?200bn of exports to the EU annual

>

.....

> My issue with the out campaign all along has been

> the lack of opinion based on hard facts.

Okay blah blah, you ask for hard facts, the following table was taken from the uk trade info website, part of HMRC which shows that over the past 8 years we have exported far less in value than we have imported from the EU

Summary of Trade with EU Countries1: 2008 to 2015

General Trade

 

 £ millions

 20082009201020112012201320142015Annual Average Growth Rate

Exports 141,068 124,649 141,931 158,293 149,986 150,423 146,666133,365 -0.70

Imports 178,858 161,634 184,726 201,599 206,914 217,101 221,360 218,667 2.54

Balance -37,790 -36,985 -42,795 -43,306 -56,928 -66,678 -74,694 -85,302 10.71

 Source: HMRC, Overseas Trade Statistics

 

Note: Figures do not include MTIC or late response estimates

1Figures are provisional and subject to update

It clearly shows that our exports to the EU are decreasing whilst the amount we import from them is increasing, therefore the argument that blah blah presents around the membership of the EU allowing us to make ?200bn in exports is both factually incorrect and also doesn't take account of the amount we import.

Hard enough facts for you blah blah ?

The website is at : https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Pages/Home.aspx

The table above can be seen at : https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/Documents/Webtbls_dec-cum_2015.xls

[Blah Blah]

And nowhere have I talked about imports. The EU doesn't force us to import anything. We choose to do that. We have trade defecits with China too and just about every other country we trade with, because we don't make anything anymore. We can't compete with the likes of China and leaving the EU won't change that.

Exports on the other hand are extrememly important for jobs and business. And that's why I keep referring to those. If we change who we import from, we may pay more or less for that import which is passed on to consumers. If we lose our ability to export to the EU or anywhere, people will lose jobs, and businesses go bust. I don't want to play Russian Roulette with those ?200bn of annual exports and the UK jobs and businesses they support. Do you?

[TheArtfulDogger]

Still don't get where you are getting this magic ?200bn from blah blah .. Look At the tables behind the website (second link in my post) and it confirms that it is only ?133bn last year to the EU

Can you post where you got your figures from please?

As for imports, if we are forced into trade deals with Europe if we exit then we import far more from them and with the Germans (for example) exporting double to us compared to what they import from us then I am sure any tariff we impose on their goods will hurt them financially more than us, therefore both the imports and exports HAVE to be considered when you are making these non factual claims of yours.

I would suggest that you need to check your facts more carefully before posting ...

[Blah Blah]

Trade deals are always difficult to negotiate with the bigger countries (and markets) always having the upper hand. It's nonsense to think leaving the EU will suddenly give us a better position when negotiationg trade deals with EU countries (for all the reasons I listed above). The EU is a collective machine, not a single country and all are bound by the same rules. There will be NO 'special' deals. And if we can't agree we will still be subject to WTO rules which means a 10% tariff on vehicles alone.

The ONS publish figures of just over 200bn in exports to the EU or 44.6% of our total epxorts. They are a pretty reliable source wouldn't you say?

All summarised here with links to the spredsheets of breakdowns.

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/international-transactions/outward-foreign-affiliates-statistics/how-important-is-the-european-union-to-uk-trade-and-investment-/sty-eu.html

You might want to retract your assumption that I don't check my facts before quoting figures. But I would never take a suggestion from anyone that was laced with sarcasm.

[TheArtfulDogger]

So what you have shown is that even the government has no real idea on exports and imports as both sets of figures are from government sources and both sets are vastly different. (Personally I would trust the HMRC ones more as they collect duties on goods moving in and out of the country) Therefore how can we trust them and their so called facts and statements when it comes to the EU

In terms of tariffs, trade deals are a two way process and not us going to the EU with cap in hand saying "can we play with your ball pretty please" and if according to your statement we have to pay 10% on cars we export if we can't reach a mutually beneficial deal then imagine the pain Germany would experience when one of their biggest buyers does the same to sales of bmws, Mercedes and other cars they want to export to the UK. I am sure that with that in mind they will quickly strike a compromise that works two ways (UK and EU)

Yes, we are less and less of a manufacturing nation, sadly in part because of the original ideals of the "common market" as well as global economics, but if costs of importing goods from Europe become higher than it would be to make here due to tariffs and other economic conditions imposed as part of any future post Brit exit deals then economics will dictate that we would start making the goods here again, therefore maybe that would be a good thing for us as a nation.

Sadly I find your statements are going down the lines of we are a broken nation that needs the EU because we can't make things anymore ... Take pride in our country for what it is, the EU actually needs us more than we really need them, economically they will lose out trade wise, our financial contributions will need to be made up by other member states resulting in a net loss for the bigger players like Germany and France.

Ultimately, as I said you need to take import and export into consideration, along with contributions to the EU as well as funding from the EU and overall we are clearly financially pouring more out of the UK Then we get back in, so is it such a good deal that you make it out to be? I personally think not !

[DovertheRoad]

In for EU. Out for ED. Probably for Vancouver to keep the missus happy.

[uncleglen]

Well, well we are now borrowing our own money- with interest I daresay

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/european-investment-bank-lend-1-billion-pounds-uk-112936803--sector.html?nhp=1

[Loz]

uncleglen Wrote:

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> Well, well we are now borrowing our own money-

> with interest I daresay

... says the person who can't tell the difference between Eurovision from the European Union.

[Earl Aelfheah]

I'm very confused. Hitter would vote to stay in, Isis for Brexit. Anyone know what Pol Pot's view would be?

[steveo]

This was John Donne's view in 1624

No man is an island,

Entire of itself,

Every man is a piece of the continent,

A part of the main.

If a clod be washed away by the sea,

Europe is the less.

[Loz]

rahrahrah Wrote:

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> I'm very confused. Hitter would vote to stay in,

> Isis for Brexit. Anyone know what Pol Pot's view would be?

More importantly, what would Brian Boitano do?

[root]

A brexit is probably good for Europe.

[uncleglen]

As I pointed out elsewhere Loz- the EU does have a finger in the EBU pie https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Broadcasting_Union

Eurovision and the EU are very similar

They are both corrupt to the core

They both swallow up loads of money (16million Swiss francs was the contribution Romania was supposed to make to the EBU)

They are both talentless bodies full of hot air

We can do without both of them

[Loz]

uncleglen Wrote:

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> As I pointed out elsewhere Loz- the EU does have a

> finger in the EBU pie

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Broadcasting_Union

Oh, for goodness sake - this is the type of badly researched and misunderstood crap that permeates this entire referendum.

The sentence "Most EU states are part of this organisation and therefore EBU has been subject to supranational legislation and regulation." means is that, as most EBU members are EU members, the EBU has to comply with EU legislation and regulation, the same as any body or organisation with a major foothold in the EU. It does not mean the two organisations are connected in any way.

Are you really voting for Brexit based on this sort of tenuous crap?

[root]

Loz Wrote:

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>

> Are you really voting for Brexit based on this

> sort of tenuous crap?

Sadly, most are. The whole exit campaign can be summed up as narcissistic delusions of grandeur.

[????]

Two questions

The EU is about defense and security importantly (apparently)...whose the EU minister for defence?

Who is East Dulwich's MEP?

I don't know I suspect the vast majority of us on here don't....

The disengagement scares me and is growing and widespread throughout Europe; hence the rise of extremists on both sides and the EU is a major cause of this.

I'm am in, just, as a pure economic pragmatist (which is why I am no longer left wing) and for those selfish reasons alone

But it all needs massive reform and re-engagement and I don't think that'll happen. Long term I'm very pessimistic.

If I was braver and less focussed on my personal job and pension (at my age with young kids very important) I'd be out like a shot.....it's a failing institution, driven by political elites and fundamentally undemocratic as is.

[Loz]

???? Wrote:

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> Two questions

>

> The EU is about defense and security importantly

> (apparently)...whose the EU minister for defence?

I don't think there is one. Isn't defence one of the things not devolved to the EU, which is why there is no euro-army?

> Who is East Dulwich's MEP?

I don't know who my MP is. And I really have no clue as to the names of my three ward councillors. So it's no real surprise when I say that I don't know the name of my MEP, either.

> I'm am in, just, as a pure economic pragmatist (which is why I am no

> longer left wing) and for those selfish reasons alone

>

> But it all needs massive reform and re-engagement

> and I don't think that'll happen. Long term I'm

> very pessimistic.

I agree that the EU needs huge reform. But so does the House of Lords. And arguably the House of Commons as well.

[uncleglen]

Here are the London MEPs

http://www.europarl.org.uk/en/your-meps/uk_meps/london_region.html

And what a waste of oxygen and food they all are.

The EU has NEVER in the last 19 years passed it's audit

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11209248/EU-auditors-refuse-to-sign-off-more-than-100billion-of-its-own-spending.html- for an example of the abject horror of the brake-less gravy train

From what I've seen it operates in much the same way as the old USSR- where the party faithful get the perks and everyone else can go and queue up for 2 weeks for a loaf of bread. We in London are well-off- there is absolute drug-fuelled misery

elsewhere in this country- but the left do not care as long as they get the votes.

As the Archbishop of Canterbury said- it is the poor that bears the brunt of uncontrolled immigration.