Voting to remain

[LondonMix]

Intersting list.

On the leave side I keep hearing the idea of wanting to be in charge and lead (including on this thread) as driving the compulsion to leave.

I personally can't relate to that burning desire. It kind of reminds me of that quote from Haruki Murakami's novel: Everyone, deep in their hearts, is waiting for the end of the world to come.

Its like a desire to break something or be the first to start the destruction of something almost for the sake of it. Human kind gets restless with the status quo from time to time.

[Louisa]

Not sure if anyone has had chance to watch the BBC2 show currently on "Britain & Europe: the immigration question"?, but it's been very interesting.

When you compare London, a city which is hugely affluent in a general sense as well as being comfortable with the benefits of immigration, it's no wonder that the debate around this aspect of brexit becomes baffling to those middle class left of centre internationalists (many of whom are probably fortunate enough to own their own homes). But then you look just outside of the capital, and you see communities where low skilled UK workers are being forced to compete with others from inside the EU for those jobs, which in turn breeds resentment. The point was made by one commentator about how a wealthy London family benefit from hiring EU nannies at competitive wages, whilst out in the wider UK jobs ordinarily done by UK workers is now hugely wage competitive which is creating competition and forcing wages downwards.

It's too easy to judge people from your ivory tower, but I beg of you to at least look at the bigger picture before you judge these people and accuse them of being bigots.

Louisa.

[johnki]

If you listen to what the programme is saying its pointing out that areas LEAST impacted by migration is where the most anti immigration feelings come from. I'm from outside of London in one such area and I'm utterly unconvinced by the notion that jobs are being stolen by migrants. We have one of the lowest unemployment rates in the G8 (and Europe) migration has been a positive boon for the country

[malumbu]

Three lines of sense vs pages of nonsense!

[LondonMix]

Louisa-- EU immigrants make up 5% of the population (including children, retirees, stay at home parents etc). 2% of these are from Eastern Europe. There is only so much impact such a small number of people can have on wages. The view is based more of fear than reality.

Louisa Wrote:

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> Not sure if anyone has had chance to watch the

> BBC2 show currently on "Britain & Europe: the

> immigration question"?, but it's been very

> interesting.

>

> When you compare London, a city which is hugely

> affluent in a general sense as well as being

> comfortable with the benefits of immigration, it's

> no wonder that the debate around this aspect of

> brexit becomes baffling to those middle class left

> of centre internationalists (many of whom are

> probably fortunate enough to own their own homes).

> But then you look just outside of the capital,

> and you see communities where low skilled UK

> workers are being forced to compete with others

> from inside the EU for those jobs, which in turn

> breeds resentment. The point was made by one

> commentator about how a wealthy London family

> benefit from hiring EU nannies at competitive

> wages, whilst out in the wider UK jobs ordinarily

> done by UK workers is now hugely wage competitive

> which is creating competition and forcing wages

> downwards.

>

> It's too easy to judge people from your ivory

> tower, but I beg of you to at least look at the

> bigger picture before you judge these people and

> accuse them of being bigots.

>

> Louisa.

[LondonMix]

Outside of London, migrants make up an even smaller portion of the population that the UK average.

[Louisa]

Johnki where exactly are you in the UK? I only ask, because another interesting point I picked up on was that cities and towns with relatively low levels of EU immigration pre-2004, which has felt the pressures on infrastructure tended to be the ones where EU migrants had taken on significant numbers of low/semi skilled jobs in direct competition with the resident population. I think that perceived fear becoming reality in those poor regions allowed other poor and predominantly British citizen dominated towns and cities to fear they were next. Again it's all about perception, but people at the bottom of the pile are always feeling like they are about to suffer the consequences of decisions made way above their heads and they have zero say or control in the matter.

It must be extremely frustrating if you had left school and was in full time work on a farm picking/harvesting fruit and veg and then one day you were laid off because the farmer decided they could employ people from elsewhere to do the same job on different terms (for example). Or you were not even able to get that manual job now because the competition was too high from elsewhere in the EU and you found yourself on the dole as a consequence.

Louisa.

[Louisa]

LM - I think the difference between London and other regions is shear numbers. Some towns like Boston in Lincolnshire or Wishbech in Calbridgshire which already had small populations suddenly saw a large influx (relative to population size), and this had a negative effect on wage growth as competition rose for fewer jobs in predominantly low/semi skilled professions. Comparing London to those regions is almost impossible. You could easily lose 100k of people in this city and not even notice on the blink of an eye. In a population of just 10 or 20k the impact is far greater.

Louisa.

[malumbu]

Mind you look at Iceland, about half of their population was in St Etienne tonight, and a third of them playing. They gave the EU boys a hell of a beating. Your in a bad way Louise - Only Love Can Break Your Heart.

[LondonMix]

Louisa I hear you but there is a regional breakdown- I'll post it in the morning- and outside of London Eastern European migrants typically make up about 1 percent of the population outside of London. There is just no way huge swathes of h country have genuinely been impacted economically though I do believe people are being sincere which is what truly saddens me.

Whenever there are social or economic problems facing a country, immigrants or minorities are always blamed regardless of how faulty the logic. The UK is not unique. This is happening in the U.S. and has happened in Russia, Germany etc both historically and in modern times, under democracies, fascisism and socialism. Hard working immigrants are an easy scapegoat. Fear in the working classes is being inflamed by a very cynical portion of the right wing political establishment for issues that really have to do with a lack of investment in the U.k outside of London, the impact of globalisation on Western industry and a lack of government investment in public services.

It's such a cheap and easy trick to blame immigrants for social issues that have virtually nothing to do with them and it tragically works every. single. time.

[Blah Blah]

Also Louisa, those EU migrants working on farms, are doing so because those farmers can't find local people who want to do back breaking work in fields or packing factories all day. I grew up on a farm and know many farmers, so know something about this. Market garden farming has always been low paying, and before min wage regulation, was often peacemeal (ie the more you picked, the more you were paid). It also has become more mechanised in recent decades, so the amount of labour needed on farms has drastically reduced. Take a look at the machine that harvests lettuce for example!

Migrants aren't flocking to areas of moderate to high unemployment. Peole in those areas who are unemployed are blaming the wrong people in thinking immigration is the reason they are unemployed.

[LondonMix]

Exactly Blah Blah. Immigrants go where there is a shortage of work not the other way around.

Anyhow, I can't link the regional stats as its a pdf download but here is the paper's title: BRIEFING PAPER

Number SN06077, 26 May 2016

Migration Statistics

In most regions outside of London Eastern European migrants account for less than 2% of the population (between 1-1.5% is typical and is only 0.8% in the North East). In London the figure is 3.5%.

In absolute numbers of course London and the South East have circa 1/3rd of total Eastern European migrants which makes sense as this is where most jobs are generated.

[JohnL]

So unless we vote to remain Osborne is going to put 2% on basic

rate of tax and 3% on higher rate - and cut NHS.

Can he actually make threats like that ?

[etta166]

JohnL Wrote:

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> So unless we vote to remain Osborne is going to

> put 2% on basic

> rate of tax and 3% on higher rate - and cut NHS.

>

> Can he actually make threats like that ?

He quite clearly can make the treat. Whether Parliament would allow it to happen in reality is a totally different question. That seems pretty unlikely, given that the Shadow Chancellor doesn't support this, and there's a sizable Tory rebellion (57 MPs I think).

However, if the economy shrinks, which most experts think it will, austerity measures would almost certainly increase under a Tory government.

[rendelharris]

JohnL Wrote:

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> So unless we vote to remain Osborne is going to

> put 2% on basic

> rate of tax and 3% on higher rate - and cut NHS.

>

> Can he actually make threats like that ?

Ugh, one of the worst things about this referendum is that one finds oneself having to defend Osborne and Cameron, which frankly makes one feel grubby. But...

You know you're being as sensationalist as a Daily Mail writer there, making it sound as though he's threatening to raise taxes as a punishment for voting out. What he's said is that if we leave there will be a ?30bn black hole in the UK's budget which will have to be made up from somewhere. Whether that's true or not I'm not competent to judge, but calling it a threat, as if it were some kind of arbitrary sanction he would place on us for not voting remain, is frankly rather pathetic.

[LondonMix]

Its not a threat. To keep service levels unchanged during a recession you either have to increase the rate of taxes (which will be falling due to reduced income and business earnings) or increase the national debt.

I'm not sure why people seem so blase about provoking a recession. Its horrible. People lose their jobs, taxes increase, poverty increases, services have to be scaled back.

My own firm already has announced that if the Brexit vote moves forward they'll have to let go of staff due to the anticipated contraction in investment activity for between 12-24 months.

Vote how your conscience tells you to vote but don't underestimate what it will cost if the country votes to Leave.

[JohnL]

It would end up being Debt again IMHO - Other Tories are now going to vote

down any budget. Would be a year of chaos at least.

Personally I think it should never have gone to a referendum - we can always

blame Cameron for that.

[LondonMix]

Taxes increased last time as did borrowing. In all likelihood it will be a combination of both of them though the debt markets are likely to be less friendly due to all of the uncertainty. The recent tax cuts (via the increase in the tax free allowance) certainly wouldn't be sustainable.

Anyhow, its not just the initial 1-2 year recession. The UK will most likely will be on a permanent slower growth trajectory than before going forward in the longer term due to the loss not only of free trade with the EU but also the loss of the 50 trade agreements the EU has with the rest of the world that the UK was able to benefit from.

[root]

This has nothing to do with economic hardship. True Englishmen will grin and bear it and survive on a cabbage and a bacon grease sandwich if necessary. This is about sovereignty, democracy, whether whether England can stand on its own two feet in the face of the tyranny of Europe. Rule Brittania! Tra la la la la la

[JohnL]

Well Brexiteers and Remainers having a battle on the Thames at the moment

- Captain Farage against Captain Geldof

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/nigel-farage-and-bob-geldof-in-river-battle-on-the-thames-over-brexit-a3272161.html

[root]

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Well Brexiteers and Remainers having a battle on

> the Thames at the moment

> - Captain Farage against Captain Geldof

>

> http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/nigel-farage

> -and-bob-geldof-in-river-battle-on-the-thames-over

> -brexit-a3272161.html

Wow! I'm not sure I want to live on this planet any more!

[LondonMix]

Haha-- I get that feeling a lot too.

[Lordship 516]

root Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> This has nothing to do with economic hardship.

> True Englishmen will grin and bear it and survive

> on a cabbage and a bacon grease sandwich if

> necessary. This is about sovereignty, democracy,

> whether whether England can stand on its own two

> feet in the face of the tyranny of Europe. Rule

> Brittania! Tra la la la la la

True Englishmen..? What about the Brits..? 1000 years history - British Empire..? What do you think all the little minded Brexit guys want..? These guys lament the fact that they cannot any longer have free rein to do what their forebears did for centuries. in the main, they go to the top schools, attend the top universities and now when they come out and land the top positions they can no longer impose their corrupt rule on the ordinary oiks. They want to roll back on employment laws, Human Rights & many other good aspects that come with being members of the EU. The man in the street will have no say, no democracy. If we all vote to leave we will be handing back power without any hope of review or restraint to these bunch of alickadoos, hooray henrys & sycophants that long for a return of ascendancy rule where a nod & a wink will come back into play for the select few. The long term advantage of the EU is that there will always be competing interests who will keep the control freaks in line, more or less. Yes, the EU does need reforming & so on but that can be done from the inside. Farage & his mateys have long been in Brussels with their snouts in the trough and could have pushed for change but have only tried to sabotage whatever they could at every chance.

I'm for remaining and also for reform - this ought to be the main message to the EU and many including Madam Chancellor will run with that as it is in the interests of every EU economy.

[Blah Blah]

Labour MP Jo Cox was shot and stabbed this afternoon by someone who allegedly shouted 'Britian First' and is in critical condition. There's an element to nationalism that isn't good - whether it is xenophobic scaremongering, hooligans using football as a front for violence, or criminals trying to murder people. We should think long and hard about what nationalism really means, and just who are the people supporting it.

And let's all hope that Jo Cox recovers. Truly awful attack.

[rendelharris]

I think now the dreadful news that Ms Cox has died has come through, perhaps we should all follow the example of both campaigns and lay off the arguments for today.