Voting to remain

[root]

Well, no one really cares about Wales. I'm definitely voting out in the London secession referendum! And we'll make them pay to build a wall around the M25.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Louisa Wrote:

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> Wales is statistically speaking one of the most

> Eurosceptic regions of the UK, and ironically

> according to the 2011 census has the smallest

> proportion of Other-EU citizens out of all

> regions. Scotland is without doubt pro-EU as is

> London, but pretty much the rest of the country

> (apart from the odd city here and there) is

> anti-EU (including Northern Ireland).

>

> Louisa.

that's not what that map says (although I have no idea how accurate it is). What are you basing taht on Lou?

[root]

rahrahrah Wrote:

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> Louisa Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Wales is statistically speaking one of the most

> > Eurosceptic regions of the UK, and ironically

> > according to the 2011 census has the smallest

> > proportion of Other-EU citizens out of all

> > regions. Scotland is without doubt pro-EU as is

> > London, but pretty much the rest of the country

> > (apart from the odd city here and there) is

> > anti-EU (including Northern Ireland).

> >

> > Louisa.

>

> that's not what that map says (although I have no

> idea how accurate it is). What are you basing taht

> on Lou?

He knocked on each door one by one. Apparently the guys in ""cities"" are quite EU leaning, the farmers not as much.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Ruthlessly exploiting a tragedy: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/13/shameful-leaveeu-tweet-uk-face-orlando-style-attack

I know there has been some questionable tactics on both side of the debate, but the Leave camp really are wallowing in the gutter.

[LondonMix]

Anti-immigrant feeling (which overlaps at least partially with Euro-Skepticism) is often highest in areas where there are no immigrants. I know this was also true in France back in the day.

Its the fear of the unknown. In a place like London where over a 3rd of people are immigrants, everyone has an in-law or a friend and probably multiple colleagues from the EU and elsewhere. When you live it, you understand what it is.

Louisa Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Wales is statistically speaking one of the most

> Eurosceptic regions of the UK, and ironically

> according to the 2011 census has the smallest

> proportion of Other-EU citizens out of all

> regions. Scotland is without doubt pro-EU as is

> London, but pretty much the rest of the country

> (apart from the odd city here and there) is

> anti-EU (including Northern Ireland).

>

> Louisa.

[Rook]

Correction London Mix - there are SOME facts in there, but the majority of your 'conclusions' around them are purely circumstantial

"After looking at all the facts, this is the bottom line for me.

?By leaving the EU, Britain will its current free trade agreement with the EU unless it accepts the continued unlimited migration of EU citizens to the UK. No country, including Switzerland as recently as 2014 has successfully been able to get full tariff free access to the trade zone while limiting EU migration.

?The new trade deal will take a long time to negotiate (it typically takes 5 years when everyone at the table is willing and eager to reach an agreement). The EU only exports 16% of its goods to the UK while the UK exports 44% of its goods the EU block. The EU will have a much stronger negotiating position in light of this. The idea that the UK trade deficit with the EU is a negotiating advantage is incorrect. In fact, it further weakens the UK. While its export sector is contracting simultaneously the cost of its imports will be escalating causing a recession and inflation simultaneously.

?Not only with the UK lose preferential access to the EU market, it will lose all the trade agreements the EU has negotiated with 50 other countries that the UK currently benefits from.

?The time it will take it renegotiate trade deals with each of these countries should not be underestimated. Also, without the scale of the EU trading block as a prize, the UK will certainly get a worse deal with those 50 countries than is currently the case.

?While deindustrialization is a serious issue impacting the economy, its source is not the UK but rather the ability of global capital to develop industry in the cheapest global labor market. This is something that impacts the US and other advanced economies that have no ties whatsoever to the EU and leaving the EU won?t have any impact on this unfortunately.

?The financial services sector will be significantly impacted by the UK?s departure from the EU as legally they will no longer be able to carry out certain services within the EU. For this reason, all the major non-EU banks will have to reduce head count in London (which will still serve as a smaller center ) as they will need to create a EU headquarter within the EU.

?The period of uncertainty following the vote regarding trade, immigration, changing laws, the new government (as Cameron would certainly resign), a new Scottish referendum (which would now more likely vote to leave the UK) etc would exacerbate the negative impact of a reduction in trade as investment into the economy would completely freeze (probably for 18 months to 2 years based on the feedback we are hearing from our investors).

These are the real costs of leaving the E.U.What is there to gain?

?In total only 5% of the UK?s population is EU citizens and that includes a significant amount of Irish who will still be able to come here irrespective of the outcome.

?Most immigration to Britain is from non-EU countries. This illustrates the UK (despite EU migration) still needs to import skills for fill critical roles. EU migrants are employed at higher rates than British citizens, which means that in addition to filling critical roles, they absolutely pay for the services they use via tax contributions. The strain on public services is due to a lack of investment rather than a lack of funds generated from migrants per-se. Therefore significantly reducing immigration cannot be done without further worsening the economic situation of the country.

?A recurring point has been that the poor have been impacted the competition from EU migrants from Eastern European countries. I really don?t understand this argument. Circa 2% of the UK population is from Eastern Europe. How is this 2% influx having a significant negative impact on the working class? They are such a small part of the population that its hard for me to understand.

?Sovereignty?this is an abstract value that each person prizes differently. If this is your reason for leaving, I can respect that as long as you are aware of the true costs involved."

[Otta]

LondonMix Wrote:

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> I didn't realise how much misinformation

> has been spread and it really bothers me. People

> can pick what they want but they should be able to

> do so knowing the reality of the situation.

Couldn't agree more. That's basically why I just can't bring myself to keep reading or watching the liars from both campaigns on telly.

Although I was amused to see this video from 2006 of Boris Johnson urging us to accept Turkey in to the EU.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/boris-johnson-turkey?utm_term=.arvlNXyRK#.mrA8akLAP

[LondonMix]

Otta, his grand-dad was Turkish and he's always been a huge advocate for Turkey joining the EU (which is very unlikely to happen for about 30 reasons).

Rook, why don't you specifically say what you think I've got wrong. I'd be interested to know.

[Rook]

Sorry London Mix- wasnt trying to "light the firework and stand well back", but I do have a fair amount of battle fatigue now when it comes to people introducing "facts". I think the key issue for the referendum- and a key source of confusion for many - has not necessarily been the facts themselves but the interpretation of them. Your post contained some facts but alot of what you have written is purely circumstantial

eg "?The time it will take it renegotiate trade deals with each of these countries should not be underestimated. Also, without the scale of the EU trading block as a prize, the UK will certainly get a worse deal with those 50 countries than is currently the case".

I could genuinely write a full page on each and every point you have made but Im cautious to get drawn into that as I dont want to come across as preaching. Im very keen that people do not swallow "facts" when they are not thats all.

Reading your posts I think a good question for you (and all of us actually) is whether you are still open to changing your mind? Can you even imagine changing your mind and voting Leave irrespective of any counter argument you might hear?

[????]

I was absolutely convinced remain would win but there just seems to have been a massive turnaround in a week or so - I've seen people on Facebook who I thought would 100% be remainers saying they are voting out; Many tories are out as we know but huge number of trad Labour voters in the North and Wales especially look to be voting out. Obviously the polls are reflecting this too.

[Rook]

Absolutely ????. Big jump in markets today on back on a suspected swing back to Remain in ICM poll- but it turned out to be bogus. I genuinely think the result will be Leave - Leave is ahead, has the momentum, and generally I think there seems to be a groundswell in understanding with people looking through the fear and negativity that initially worked so well in remain campaign (admittedly though some good examples of that being used on both sides). Cameron et al obviously "disaster planning" in case of Brexit and rumours breaking hes stepping that up. He'd be mad not to.

Its very close to call but I think if there is Brexit youll be amazed how quickly the gov comes forward with a sound plan. Undoubedtly markets will react initally to uncertainty as thats what they do- but they will recover quickly with a plan.

With Italy and potentially others lining up even if we Remain I think the EU will be more of a long term drag for the UK economy. Remain will not equal relief and I think many agree we now face a new world of Euro Scepticism. Some of my clients (inv banking) are now comign around to the notion of short term pain for long term gain, as opposed to long term protracted pain! Its a tough call and I dont want to preach, but the "no brainer" for Remain is anythign but- the counter argument is definitely there

[LondonMix]

Yes but it would have to be based on new information or arguments I hadn't already heard. That's why I asked you what you thought I had wrong. I am genuinely interested.

The time it takes to negotiate a trade agreement is long. Looking at all past trade deals, its clear its a question of years not weeks or months. Both the EU and the US have come out and explicitly said that it will take at least 5-10 years. While some may argue that statement is politically motivated, the new EU deal with Canada took 5 years and its still not fully implemented so that's a fairly clear indication of the complexities and time frames involved.

Rook Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Sorry London Mix- wasnt trying to "light the

> firework and stand well back", but I do have a

> fair amount of battle fatigue now when it comes to

> people introducing "facts". I think the key issue

> for the referendum- and a key source of confusion

> for many - has not necessarily been the facts

> themselves but the interpretation of them. Your

> post contained some facts but alot of what you

> have written is purely circumstantial

>

> eg "?The time it will take it renegotiate trade

> deals with each of these countries should not be

> underestimated. Also, without the scale of the EU

> trading block as a prize, the UK will certainly

> get a worse deal with those 50 countries than is

> currently the case".

>

> I could genuinely write a full page on each and

> every point you have made but Im cautious to get

> drawn into that as I dont want to come across as

> preaching. Im very keen that people do not swallow

> "facts" when they are not thats all.

>

> Reading your posts I think a good question for you

> (and all of us actually) is whether you are still

> open to changing your mind? Can you even imagine

> changing your mind and voting Leave irrespective

> of any counter argument you might hear?

[root]

I think I am selfishly leaning towards leave as from the latest analysis I stand to make a killing from data centre migration work!

[LondonMix]

Rook-- you can't have an emergency plan formulated in isolation. Whatever policies the new government led by Boris would want to implement will still need to be negotiated with other countries. That they might be formulating an agreed proposal is a first step but hardly anything that would allow them to remove the uncertainty surround the situation in short order.

[Rook]

Root- Good luck haha! however your glib comment hits upon a very valid issue- do you vote for yourself, or for the good of the country / all? Ive wrestled with this Ill tell you

London Mix - youve raised a very valid, crucial issue on trade but the harsh truth is that no-one knows how it will play out. The key consideration is if you are willing to take that "risk". I will state however that a great fire or flood will not immediately envelop the UK with all business run into the ground overnight.If we vote to Leave we do so under article 50 which states that we have 2 years to negotiate our exit (or sooner). It will be BAU for a long while. Any extension to this is only by agreement of the member states, but my own view is that Germany, france etc will want to move very quickly indeed to strike up trade agreements with us, and I also believe that we will be very good at negotiating them too.

Trade will not just stop.

No country will just price themselves out of business - and I find it hard to beleive that the EU will introduce "punish tax/ tariffs" onto the UK in spite of us leaving. I think that would be very hard to implement at the top table so Ive filed that one under fear tactics. I totally recognise that others will have an alternate view but Ive based my conclusions on 2 things

1) What Im hearing from senior people in very large organisations. James Dyson also called the notion of not being able to negotitate trade agreements "cobblers" (my clients all share this view) but the really interestign view for me was John Longworth who until recently was head of the British chamber of Commerce. He had the interests of british businesses at heart and surely knew the intracacies of dealign with the EU better than anyone. He HAD to speak up (and it cost him his job). He was massively well respected.

2) Secondly, I have my own views which link back to my thoughts around a new world of Euro scepticism. I genuinely feel that the EU is a failed experiment. Even if we Remain investment will still stall and the economy will enter a long protracted position of low growth/recession anyway. I genuinely feel that if we vote to Leave it will be the end of this system that is not working (look at all the economies now) and there will be a wider move and renegotiation on trade in Europe. I have alot of confidence in Britains ability to lead not be led, and I wont be surprised if there was a leave vote to see Cameron et al step forward immediately with a concrete plan. For me the question is do we recognise all this now and plan /regrow/invoke positive change or do we put a sticking plaster over it and remain simply afraid of an unknown. For me the unknown can be positive not just negative

[Rook]

LondonMix- absolutely...markets dont like uncertainty and if there is a vote to Leave the market will react for sure. its just my view that this will not be as long term as people fear

[root]

Rook Wrote:

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> Root- Good luck haha! however your glib comment

> hits upon a very valid issue- do you vote for

> yourself, or for the good of the country / all?

> Ive wrestled with this Ill tell you

>

I was thinking of voting in what made most long term sense for everyone. I'm a continental, and the resentment I've felt building up towards me from people I considered friends in a country I've called home for over a decade now all I care about is selling my assets in this country, making the most I can from the situation and hop over to another city, although ironically it's most likely to be NY or HK as I'm not keen on Frankfurt.

[LondonMix]

Interesting-- what do you think is going to cause the economy to stall if we Remain specifically? Also, you mentioned long term pain in a different post. Given that Britain doesn't have the Euro and doesn't pay for Eurozone bailouts, I really don't get what the downside is despite the dysfunction.

Rook Wrote:

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> 2) Secondly, I have my own views which link back

> to my thoughts around a new world of Euro

> scepticism. I genuinely feel that the EU is a

> failed experiment. Even if we Remain investment

> will still stall and the economy will enter a long

> protracted position of low growth/recession

> anyway. I genuinely feel that if we vote to Leave

> it will be the end of this system that is not

> working (look at all the economies now) and there

> will be a wider move and renegotiation on trade in

> Europe. I have alot of confidence in Britains

> ability to lead not be led, and I wont be

> surprised if there was a leave vote to see Cameron

> et al step forward immediately with a concrete

> plan. For me the question is do we recognise all

> this now and plan /regrow/invoke positive change

> or do we put a sticking plaster over it and remain

> simply afraid of an unknown. For me the unknown

> can be positive not just negative

[LondonMix]

And I do agree the UK can negotiate new trade deals, I just don't think we can do it significantly faster than other countries and I don't think it will be on equal or better terms than what a large trading block like the EU has been able to achieve. I think the UK will do good deals for the relative size of its market (which is much smaller than the EU) and it will take the normal amount of time (i.e. years) to conclude them (all 51)

It sounds like you are voting leave in part in the hope that it will precipitate the end of the EU as a whole. Am I right in reading that in your posts?

[Otta]

LondonMix Wrote:

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> Otta, his grand-dad was Turkish and he's always

> been a huge advocate for Turkey joining the EU

> (which is very unlikely to happen for about 30

> reasons).

>

> Rook, why don't you specifically say what you

> think I've got wrong. I'd be interested to know.

Yes I know, but the point is that in recent weeks he's rather brushed that bit under the carpet.

[LondonMix]

Yep, he's a hypocrite of the worst kind. Someone who would demonize a portion of their own family heritage for ambition is the scariest kind of political animal. His only true conviction is attaining power.

[TwoScoops]

@LM I think its referring to markets. We know it's going to be a very close vote so markets will stay depressed as everyone then starts worrying about other countries potentially voting to leave. Uncertainty remember ! All current issues remain but just with extra caution around future of the EU. Investment flows out of Uk and Eu in general so zero growth and drag on economy that way

[LondonMix]

The UK has global trade deals via the EU-- 50 of them with others in pipeline including Canada and on top of that the free trade access to the EU. That's far more than most single countries have on their own (like Australia and Switzerland which have circa 15 trade agreements). Its the size of the EU trading block that allows for so many global trade agreements to exist.

I'm not sure I follow the logic that because the country has held a referendum, the only logical choice is to vote out because we've already caused so much uncertainty in the markets just by holding the vote. Is that what you are saying? I personally know of 125m of investment deals that will go forward with a Remain vote. Brexit clauses are being written into to contracts that are otherwise ready to be executed so I don't believe the markets will be depressed if the vote is Remain.

Anyhow, how would the economic consequences of Leaving not be much worse?

Can someone please explain what exactly there is to gain. I mean real benefits.

The UK already participates in the best of the EU (the trade block- which even those on the Leave side want to maintain access to) and is completely disconnected from the worst of it (the Eurozone / Euro). The only thing else is EU immigration and EU legislation. What specifically would you change and what do you believe would be the benefits?

[aerie]

hello, has anyone mentioned this already if so apologies : I have ambivalent feelings as do many people, for leaving Europe, taking for granted that we would have free movement whilst waving a British passport. People wil vote according to their personal circumstance and it's true there is an age divide : older people will vote out for autonomy and perceived sovereignty but younger people with more political, fiscal and youtube nous will vote to remain as they believe they see the bigger picture.

Someone made a point earlier, I forget who, sorry, about ex pats living abroad. For those of us with properties in France (especially difficult at the moment), Spain or any other EU country, this has a profound effect on our sensibilities and a ripple effect in that our families are also affected, inheritance and all that. There are many many Brits abroad, many farmers, Cornish, Devonians, Irish, Scottish, and many now ekeing a living with gites and chambre d'hote, equestrian enterprises, removal firms, builders (!) roofers, car mechanics, whatever, all anxious now as to what will become of them. Sarkozy was never a friend to the British and Hollande even less.

The French are adept at extracting money from hapless buyers and sellers of land and property and the rules of the game remain fluid.

The national sport has always been, beat the taxman and the losers are the straight and honest Brits, Dutch, Germans, the price of a house or property for sale rises incrementally on the nationality of the purchaser.

However it has been increasingly difficult over the last five years to sell property in western Europe, and nigh on impossible to sell in rural France with the current unrest, threats of terrorism, the ATC and fisherman with their napoleonic chains across the harbour mouth, the constant strikes, the situation at Calais, and general bloody mindedness which means free passage is not always possible, although rural France ironically, has to be one of the safest places to live in the world

The English (British) are not buying in France. The English in France are returning in droves, taking whatever they can for their dream homes. The cost of living in France is enormous, pictures of weekly markets and stalls burdened with fruit veg, fish etc, and a bucolic lifestyle are not representative of most of France

The hidden costs, of Tax Fancier, Habitation, Utilities, fuel, and the escalating cost of wine and cigarettes, which always seemed to be the staple diet of many ancient Frenchmen, means that sojourns to

France have lost their appeal.

My sister bought a brand new apartment in Spain nr Seville, which she bought two years ago as the price was so low she could not resist. However the people who bought off plan and five years ago are now in despair,

The English pension/s do not have the same power as they did and there are no extras.

This view will I hope suggest reasons why many will vote, IN, as they see no reason to vote OUT.

In the small town where we live we have seen businesses start up and fail, grind to a halt, have no backing whether from the Maire or the locals. There does not seem to be a spirit of endeavour or entrepreneurism encouraged or flourishing in new businesses, the red tape, mindless bureaucracy and intransigence of the mindset always puts paid to that. The social taxes are extortionate, which is why cafes restaurants and shops are family run mostly. I guess you all know this.

For allthose people saying, we want our children to be able to travel/study/work in Europe, I would suggest that the picture is very different now. Europe is not a safe place anymore. However money for study or travel will still have the same cachet. Work I am not too sure about. The only educated people working in France (Paris or Bordeaux)I met were teachers, Embassy, wine merchants and exporters, and banker (one) British builders and ancillaries are mostly redundant in France, for obvious reasons. The Dutch and Belgians, Germans are staying away in droves.

This is my view from the pont for what it's worth. We buy run down places in France and Spain for our retirement whatever, spend too much money on 'doing them up' and now cannot sell for what we bought them for. It is beyond dispiriting.

We need strong leadership that's for sure - one who does not embarrass us, bumbling Boris and his Turkish army he is our fifth column.

If anyone else has a personal European viewpoint they have already espoused or about to I would be pleased to read it

[WorkingMummy]

I wondered when someone would mention James Dyson.

James Dyson has absolutely zero experience in international diplomacy, treaty formation, or trade negotiations. He invented a very good hoover and my kids love those blade dryer thingies of his, but he is in no position to tell you that a trade deal will be "easy" to negotiate. Still less, has he (or anyone here) set out an actual strategy for achieving a BETTER trade deal THAN WE ALREDY HAVE (complete with our Schengen opt-out, security opt-out, fiscal opt-out and the automatic 1/3 discount from our budget contributions that Maggie secured in the 1980s).

Secondly, James Dyson deserves a great big kick up his arse (if his head has left any room) for the combination of stupidity and arrogance that led him very recently to comment that we must leave the EU so that HE can be free to recruit graduating UK university students who come from from Hong Kong and China (who presumably he has used as interns during their studies) without the....wait for it... four and a half month process his company currently has to go through with the Home Office to get them work permits and visas!! How shocking!!!

Obviously, all our hearts will bleed for that weighty burden of administration which poor Mr Dyson faces but really, that is no bloody argument about anybody's interests other than his own, IMMEDIATELY confronting him.

Which is why he would make a ruddy awful trade negotiator.