Voting to remain

[LondonMix]

Why?

natty01295 Wrote:

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> VOTE LEAVE !!!!!!

[Louisa]

Every single current and former politician (including Blair), has admitted that immigration is not something we can control from inside the EU amongst member states, that's a fact. As long as we remain, and more people wish to come here than leave we will have a problem with infrastructure and housing stock. It's simple demand and supply stuff. People can bang the drum of 'it's our own parliament who have control over putting the investment in', but let's be realistic, successive government's have failed to do this. Once we leave, the pure demand and supply side will begin to re-balance itself, because if and when needed we can put a halt on inward migration with a simple act of parliament, and we let's say in the worst case scenario we forefeit some awful trading deals based around free movement of people as a result, so be it. Getting young people on the housing ladder (and even rental ladder in London) is far more important than any supposed economic losses associated with brexit (losses which no one on the remain side can prove or disprove anyway). Get that money invested in house building private and social, and also take the strain off the NHS. We have priorities far more pressing to worry about than whether or not the EU will gracefully provide us with a trading deal.

Louisa.

[root]

Louisa, how do you think leaving the EU will affect immigration from Pakistan and Bangladesh?

[uncleglen]

Latest from Migration Watch

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/press-release/454

root- Brussels created a backdoor entry into the EU for non-EU citizens - and the Pakistanis, Bangladeshis etc in the UK just marry someone from there and Bob is your uncle population doubles! David Cameron could not prevent it so the only way to get any control over this small island is to get out

[root]

uncleglen Wrote:

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> Latest from Migration Watch

> http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/press-release/454

>

> root- Brussels created a backdoor entry into the

> EU for non-EU citizens - and the Pakistanis,

> Bangladeshis etc in the UK just marry someone from

> there and Bob is your uncle population doubles!

> David Cameron could not prevent it so the only way

> to get any control over this small island is to

> get out

You do understand that it's the European Union you are voting to leave not planet earth, right?

[Loz]

uncleglen Wrote:

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> Latest from Migration Watch

> http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/press-release/454

Simple logic, using the article's own stats, shows this article to be a pile of poo. from the article:

A central, but cautious estimate, for total net migration suggests that it could run at 265,000 in 2035. 60% of the net foreign inflow would come from the EU.

So the non-EU immigration - where we have the sort of 'control' you want - still provides 40% of immigration. You would expect that if the EU were under the same controls, being in close proximity, they would provide AT LEAST a similar level. So the MAXIMUM you would expect immigration to drop if we left the EU would be 20%, but even then (given the close proximity) it would probably be - at most - about 10%.

So - based on Migration Watch's own stats - leaving the EU would actually have very little effect on immigration.

[Louisa]

root immigration from the rest of the world is already kept under control in this country. We simply allow in the people we feel will benefit the economy eg foreign students, nurses, doctors etc. By leaving the EU this will not change, all that will happen is that our former EU partners will have to join the rest of the world queue for entry into the UK. Don't see a problem with that personally. The red herring of accepting freedom of movement and Schengen has no foundation in fact whatsoever. Despite the constant use of Switzerland and Norway as examples of this.

Louisa.

[Rook]

Definitely voting to Leave

[LondonMix]

Why do you think its a red herring? Do you really believe the UK will get the same free trade deal it has now but without accepting EU citizens unilaterally? Honest question.

Louisa Wrote:

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> root immigration from the rest of the world is

> already kept under control in this country. We

> simply allow in the people we feel will benefit

> the economy eg foreign students, nurses, doctors

> etc. By leaving the EU this will not change, all

> that will happen is that our former EU partners

> will have to join the rest of the world queue for

> entry into the UK. Don't see a problem with that

> personally. The red herring of accepting freedom

> of movement and Schengen has no foundation in fact

> whatsoever. Despite the constant use of

> Switzerland and Norway as examples of this.

>

>

> Louisa.

[Earl Aelfheah]

There is no reason to think that leaving the EU will bring down immigration in the long term (it may in the short term simply due to the likelihood of a recession / reduction in demand for labour). People are here to work in all but a handful of cases and those jobs will still need doing (unless, as I say, there is a significant down turn, which is quite possible / probable).

Immigrants are much more likely to be net contributors to the exchequer (as they're more likely to be of working age), so even if a future government decided that it would limit numbers regardless of demand, there would be even less money available to allocate to public services.

The whole immigration debate is a complete red herring in my opinion. It's being used to excuse the effects of an explicit policy to reduce public spending (austerity). Why on earth people can't see a link between reduced spending on services and reduced quality of those services is beyond me.

[root]

rahrahrah Wrote:

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...

>

> The whole immigration debate is a complete red

> herring in my opinion. It's being used to excuse

> the effects of an explicit policy to reduce public

> spending (austerity). Why on earth people can't

> see a link between reduced spending on services

> and reduced quality of those services is beyond

> me.

Maybe it is, but besides some being pissed off at EU environmental, product safety, and other regulations that impact short term profiteering immigration is what is getting many hot under the collar.

[Earl Aelfheah]

As an aside, doesn't anyone think it's pretty weird timing in terms of the referendum, considering the government are backing remain? We have the queen's 90th - with all the nostalgia for Britain's past and general flag wavery + the Football and the proxy European war which that represents (and more flag waving nationalism). You probably couldn't pick a moment more likely to produce an out vote.

[root]

rahrahrah Wrote:

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> As an aside, doesn't anyone think it's pretty

> weird timing in terms of the referendum,

> considering the government are backing remain? We

> have the queen's 90th - with all the nostalgia for

> Britain's past and general flag wavery + the

> Football and the proxy European war which that

> represents (and more flag waving nationalism). You

> probably couldn't pick a moment more likely to

> produce an out vote.

Well, maybe, with a hint of irony. Whining that the EU is so undemocratic yet cheering a 90 year old unelected head of state.

[Alan Medic]

You saw that cartoon too root? Very valid point.

[DulwichFox]

In 1951, six countries founded the European Coal and Steel Community, and later, in 1957, the European Economic Community and the European Atomic Energy Community:

Belgium

Germany

France

Italy

Luxembourg

the Netherlands

A further 22 countries have since joined the EU, including a historic expansion in 2004 marking the re-unification of Europe after decades of division:

The UK joined in 1973

4 more countries including Turkey are seeking to join..

Ironically I have concidered living permantly in Turkey for several years.. and with Turkey joining, that would of made things much easier..

with the referendum on whether to remain or leave and myself coming down on the side of the leave.

Quite a conundrum ..

The problem is that many of the current members are having severe financial problems with other countries footing the bill.

With more countries joining and businesses having unlimited access to cheap labour. (those happy to work for the minimal wage )

All these legal mirants will have access to Housing, Schools, NHS hosptals which will put additional burden on these

already stricken facilities..

It isn't going to get any better if we Stay.

DulwichFox

[Earl Aelfheah]

.. but it is going to get worse if we leave

[LondonMix]

After looking at all the facts, this is the bottom line for me.

?By leaving the EU, Britain will lose its current free trade agreement with the EU unless it accepts the continued unlimited migration of EU citizens to the UK. No country, including Switzerland as recently as 2014 has successfully been able to get full tariff free access to the trade zone while limiting EU migration.

?The new trade deal will take a long time to negotiate (it typically takes 5 years when everyone at the table is willing and eager to reach an agreement). The EU only exports 16% of its goods to the UK while the UK exports 44% of its goods the EU block. The EU will have a much stronger negotiating position in light of this. The idea that the UK trade deficit with the EU is a negotiating advantage is incorrect. In fact, it further weakens the UK. While its export sector is contracting simultaneously the cost of its imports will be escalating causing a recession and inflation simultaneously.

?Not only will the UK lose preferential access to the EU market, it will lose all the trade agreements the EU has negotiated with 50 other countries that the UK currently benefits from.

?The time it will take to renegotiate trade deals with each of these countries should not be underestimated. Also, without the scale of the EU trading block as a prize, the UK will certainly get a worse deal with those 50 countries than is currently the case.

?While de-industrialization is a serious issue impacting the economy, its source is not the EU but rather the ability of global capital to develop industry in the cheapest global labor market. This is something that impacts the US and other advanced economies that have no ties whatsoever to the EU and leaving the EU won?t have any impact on this unfortunately.

?The financial services sector will be significantly impacted by the UK?s departure from the EU as legally they will no longer be able to carry out certain services within the EU. For this reason, all the major non-EU banks will have to reduce head count in London (which will still serve as a smaller center ) as they will need to create headquarter within the EU.

?The period of uncertainty following the vote regarding trade, immigration, changing laws, the new government (as Cameron would certainly resign), a new Scottish referendum (which would now more likely vote to leave the UK) etc would exacerbate the negative impact of a reduction in trade as investment into the economy would completely freeze (probably for 18 months to 2 years based on the feedback we are hearing from our investors).

These are the real costs of leaving the E.U. What is there to gain?

?In total only 5% of the UK?s population is EU citizens and that includes a significant amount of Irish who will still be able to come here irrespective of the outcome.

?Most immigration to Britain is from non-EU countries. This illustrates the UK (despite EU migration) still needs to import skills to fill critical roles. EU migrants are employed at higher rates than British citizens, which means that in addition to filling critical roles, they absolutely pay for the services they use via tax contributions. The strain on public services is due to a lack of investment rather than a lack of funds generated from migrants per-se. Therefore significantly reducing immigration cannot be done without further worsening the economic situation of the country.

?A recurring point has been that the poor have been impacted the competition from EU migrants from Eastern European countries. I really don?t understand this argument. Circa 2% of the UK population is from Eastern Europe. How has this 2% influx had a significant negative impact on the working class? They are such a small part of the population that its hard for me to understand.

?Sovereignty?this is an abstract value that each person prizes differently. If this is your reason for leaving, I can respect that as long as you are aware of the true costs involved.

Edited for multiple typos!

[Otta]

I don't know how you guys keep going with this. I lost the will to live pages ago.

[LondonMix]

Fox- immigrants pay taxes (they have higher rates of employment that Brits) so they pay their way regarding public services. Its a lack of investment that is causing the strain rather than it being an unfunded cost.

I don't understand your argument about cheap labor. Do you mean in other EU countries or poorer EU citizens coming to the UK to work?

DulwichFox Wrote:

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> In 1951, six countries founded the European Coal

> and Steel Community, and later, in 1957, the

> European Economic Community and the European

> Atomic Energy Community:

> Belgium

> Germany

> France

> Italy

> Luxembourg

> the Netherlands

> A further 22 countries have since joined the EU,

> including a historic expansion in 2004 marking the

> re-unification of Europe after decades of

> division:

>

> The UK joined in 1973

>

> 4 more countries including Turkey are seeking to

> join..

>

> Ironically I have concidered living permantly in

> Turkey for several years.. and with Turkey

> joining, that would of made things much easier..

> with the referendum on whether to remain or leave

> and myself coming down on the side of the leave.

>

> Quite a conundrum ..

>

> The problem is that many of the current members

> are having severe financial problems with other

> countries footing the bill.

>

> With more countries joining and businesses having

> unlimited access to cheap labour. (those happy to

> work for the minimal wage )

>

> All these legal mirants will have access to

> Housing, Schools, NHS hosptals which will put

> additional burden on these

> already stricken facilities..

>

> It isn't going to get any better if we Stay.

>

> DulwichFox

[LondonMix]

I\ve only started a few pages ago-- I ignored this thread (and haven't read most of it) until last week. I didn't realise how much misinformation has been spread and it really bothers me. People can pick what they want but they should be able to do so knowing the reality of the situation.

Otta Wrote:

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> I don't know how you guys keep going with this. I

> lost the will to live pages ago.

[Louisa]

For those of you bored by the back and forth, round and round like a carousel debating, take a look at this YouGov map of the UK. It tells us a lot about the most and least Eurosceptic regions.

https://yougov.co.uk/yougov-8545/

Louisa.

[*Bob*]

I'm IN - though I have family in other parts of the country who are mostly out. For them, underneath the sovereignty hood, it's all about immigration - as everyone surely knows.

Most of them are voting out as a reaction against the change (over decades) in their local demographic caused by previous waves of immigration (y'know, the ones who didn't even come from within the EU) and their children (who were born in the UK).

[Earl Aelfheah]

Interesting map. Not such a London / North split. Scots and Welsh looking likely to vote very differently to England if true. That'll put Scottish independence back on the agenda.

[root]

rahrahrah Wrote:

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> Interesting map. Not such a London / North split.

> Scots and Welsh looking likely to vote very

> differently to England if true. That'll put

> Scottish independence back on the agenda.

Yeah, this is about England leaving the EU. Scotland (and probably Wales) would secede. Ideally London too :-)

[Louisa]

Wales is statistically speaking one of the most Eurosceptic regions of the UK, and ironically according to the 2011 census has the smallest proportion of Other-EU citizens out of all regions. Scotland is without doubt pro-EU as is London, but pretty much the rest of the country (apart from the odd city here and there) is anti-EU (including Northern Ireland).

Louisa.