Reg Smeeton

For those asking about old shops on Lordship Lane, I've partially updated this old thread. See the opening post for the full list as it stands.

Now sold, subject to contract.

In April the number of properties for sale in SE22 on Rightmove was 220. It's now just over 300. Supply is going up and/or demand going down. My prediction in April was that prices would be 10% below their peak by this autumn (peak having been reached around Jan/Feb this year), and I'm sticking to it. In other words, a place that would have gone for ?1m at the start of 2016, will soon 'only' be going for ?900k.

Never mind traffic-calming, when Jarvis Road becomes a Charter school entrance the north section of Melbourne Rd will probably be in near-constant gridlock during school hours.

The Police Station was pretty unique too. Not everything that's unique needs to be preserved, however.

Overheard a conversation on Lordship Lane the other day, one of the builders working on the site reckoning M&S will be opening sometime in August.

Reg Smeeton Wrote on Apr 12: ------------------------------------------------------- > One crude way of detecting a cooling market is to > find out how many SE22 homes are on the market on > Rightmove. At the moment it's 222, which is a lot > more than a year ago. Six weeks later, the number of homes on the market with Rightmove has jumped to 268, of which 66 are indicated as having had prices reduced.

rendelharris - fair enough, if the day has to be made up at another time then I take back everything I said above. I was under the impression that this is just a day lost from the school calendar.

Does anyone ever consider what the cost to families is for closing a school for the day. There are about 450 children at Heber school, and parents have to arrange care or take holiday to look after them. Let's be ultra conservative and say that on average parents are having to fork out ?30 per child that they hadn't planned on spending (that's around ?13k). Then there's the loss to the child's formal education which is hard to quantify, but let's give it a nominal value of ?20 per child, that's another ?10k. So it's costing parents ?25k++ for the school to be closed for the day. If Heber has to be used, why isn't it possible for the Heber School House to be used as the Polling station, with some temporary fencing to segregate the right hand portion of the playground (what do you reckon, ?2k would do it?) to keep the dangerous child-molesting public away from the poor defenceless pupils. And after all that, how many people actually went in to vote during school hours, I wonder?

Villager Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Talked to 2 estate agent friends in last coupe of > days and both say that the froth has gone off the > market. There was a big demand in the run up to > 5th April (end of tax year) and they say most > vendors now will accept offers well below the > recent asking prices. So - can you ask your estate agent friends when they think sold prices were at their absolute peak for (say) a 2 bed flat in SE22? My guess is going to be the last couple of months. (But prices were rising at their fastest in 2013/14).

Loz Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Reg Smeeton Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > I predict prices will have fallen 10% from their > peak by October this > > year. Any takers? > > Considering the peak was the mad times of Spring > 2014, I suggest this (and more) has already > happened So Loz you reckon that, say, a flat bought for ?500k two years ago would now fetch only ?450k? Hmm, show me the evidence. I can believe that prices only climbed a little bit last year, but not that they fell. But I'm predicting that a flat bought for ?500k in the last six months will be down to ?450k by this autumn (assuming it's not been 'improved' in the meantime).

One crude way of detecting a cooling market is to find out how many SE22 homes are on the market on Rightmove. At the moment it's 222, which is a lot more than a year ago. Over 50 of them are marked as 'Reduced', and quite a few of those were reduced in the last week. I predict prices will have fallen 10% from their peak by October this year. Any takers?

This doesn't belong in the Gossip section: can it go in the Lounge please.

Just had a polite lad (14?) at the door. "We are raising sponsorship for an African charity with a football match tomorrow". I asked him where he's at school. "Coriba College in Nunhead" (or something like that). When I asked where he lives he said in Elephant & Castle. So what is he doing in East Dulwich asking for sponsorship? I told him I'd only sponsor something from one of the nearby schools. This reminds me of an almost identical incident about ten years ago when a girl (similar age, also from Elephant & Castle) wanted sponsorship for something. I'm almost certain that previous one was a scam, so if you do get such a visitor make sure you quiz them properly.

Ellis Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Have you heard that the Silvester Rd sorting > office is going to close? Dear Ellis: No I hadn't heard this - until you started this rumour, which has been allowed to turn into a popular thread. This may not have been intended as trolling, but that's how I'm treating it. What is your source (I hope it's not "a friend told me...").

Trying telling that to a Japanese person whose house is currently worth about half what it was worth in 1990. Or somebody in Dublin who paid 30% more for their house in 2007 than they can get for it now. But hey, London's different and prices will just keep on going up faster than the RPI forever till we property owners are all zillionaires. EDOldie Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I think you are all looking at too short a period. > Sure that there are ups and downs in the market > but over twenty five years, a fairly normal length > of mortgage, just look what happened to values. > 1990 was an exceptional recession in the housing > market but values today are probably ten times > what they were then. Despite stamp duty, low > rental yields, maintenance etc, etc a well planned > BTL sandwich, sorry strategy, ought to be a very > good bet on past performance.

Let me give you a specific example: In March 2008 a three bed house near me went on the market for ?599k. It was speculative, but some houses had achieved that level. It was just about the peak of the market. There were no buyers, so they kept reducing the price and finally in early 2009 it sold for ?430k. That's nearly 30% lower than what they'd hoped they might get for it. Yes there was froth in the market, but there will have been some people who bought in SE22 in early 2008 and were forced to sell in early 2009 (eg due to a marriage break-up or loss of a job) who genuinely did see 25% price falls. By mid 2009 the impact of low interest rates really began to kick in, and the market rocketed back up quickly. That same house that sold for 430k would now probably get more than double that figure. Is the world twice as wealthy? Have family incomes doubled? No, in many case incomes have hardly changed. But interest rates are, for the time being, a fraction of what they were.

I've been in ED long enough to have seen two major slumps in prices around here. 1990-93 there was a long drawn out 30% slump (which some thought would never end), then in 2008 a rapid plunge of about 25% (which ended because the Government reduced interest rates to zero, something they can't do next time). It will happen again one day. And when it does happen, the rose tinted specs disappear very quickly. So I'd say anyone who buys a place in London now should first imagine how they'd feel about living in it if it lost value. A dank one bed flat feels great when prices are going up, but terrible when they go down. At least if it's your home it has the value that you can live in it.

These look like worthy winners and nominees - I'm even prepared to believe this is an award based on merit rather than 'who paid us the most for a review'. Well done Blue Brick and ED PictureHouse cafe.

BrandNewGuy Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > The map and diagrams on page 1 of this thread > should help you. I've looked at the map and diagrams. As far as I can tell, it's just the unused tracks directly next to the existing Peckham Rye to QRd Peckham line, so we're talking about a walkway/cycle way right next to the trains. Is that right? Not that I object, but I had in my head some idyllic disused viaduct floating quietly above the streets away from the hustle and bustle.

Sorry for being obtuse, but where is this mystery Coal Line? Is it a torn up track immediately next to the existing line between Peckham Rye and Queens Rd Peckham, or is it a separate viaduct? Either way, is what's proposed basically a walkway/cycle way right next to the current trains?

Congratulations Heber on getting a 'Good' Rating from Ofsted across the board. Puts right the travesty of the previous assessment.

According to the latest Dulwich estate newsletter: HALF MOON will be redeveloped as a pub/hotel CROWN & GREYHOUND refurbishment has been delayed but opening as pub/hotel in 2016 GROVE TAVERN - little prospect of it reopening as a pub, the estate would like to redevelop it as a mix of commercial and residential units. http://www.dulwichestate.co.uk/docs/general/dulwich-estate-bulletin-issue3.pdf

So farewell then, East Dulwich Police station. The protective screens are going up, Demolition is imminent. You were one of the ugliest buildings in East Dulwich But I'm going to miss you Particularly the peace and quiet.

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