benmorg

chap i was referring to is called Tony

local estate agent Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > The land the gym will sit on is 230sq.metres. it > will be arranged over 2/3 floors. > > Theres is going to be 32 parking spaces next to it > also.... > > road access through abbotswood and talbot road where exactly is it located? I can't see any space on google maps, unless the owners of the long gardens at end of Talbot road have sold off the bottom halves. Or is it in one of the patches of woodland by the train line?

I wasn't aware the proposal included flats... Maybe they'll mothball the project if the housing market doesn't recover.

i think the one at the library has been closed down due to the slow market. One of DVR's best-liked members of staff (a member of this forum) was made redundant, but I don't know which branch he was at.

there's so little land between Abbotswood/Talbot road and the train line that it's hard to see how this gym could be big enough to generate any noticeable increase in traffic. What could be more of a problem is parking, as parking spaces are in short supply on these streets and fiercely guarded by residents! I think the gym's customers will probably have to walk, so maybe the plan for a footpath up past dominos pizza place is a good idea. I think it's probably good news for home-owners in the area as they will now have sainsburys, the station and a brand new gym all on their doorstep, which can't hurt house prices and will make it very easy to find tenants if they want to let their property.

Moos Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > If young people buy and old people sell where do > the old people live afterwards? well, ultimately they live in a hole in the ground (a lot of chains end in vacant premises sold by beneficiaries of an estate), but in the short term they move out of London for a better quality of life - whether they are retiring or merely past their 30s and tired of London. As local estate agent pointed out in a earlier post, a lot of the biggest discounts currently being had are where the vendors are moving out of London to somewhere where prices have fallen substantially, allowing them to pass a discount back down the chain to their london buyer. Note also that older vendors are more likely to have substantial equity and therefore be more relaxed about taking a hit than recent buyers who won't sell for less than they paid.

AcedOut Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > As for agents trying to increase the prices > through talking-up the market, it's probably more > in their favour JUST TO SELL! A good strategy in > the current climate would actually be to talk the > vendor into dropping the price to get a quicker > sell. Ok, so they loose a little commission, but > at least the liquidity remains high. Better to > have some commission than none at all. For an > agent on 1.5%, a ?10,000 drop in price is only > costing them ?150. If the place is worth ?250,000 > then that goes from ?3750 to ?3600, or a 4% drop > in commission. It will hurt them, but better than > to loose out to another agent. It's an estate agent's job to talk down vendors' expectations and talk up buyers' expectations, hoping the two will meet in the middle. I think there are probably more buyers than vendors on the forum, given that internet forums appeal to a younger crowd, so it still makes sense for a shrewd estate agent to talk up the market on the east dulwich forum, while privately telling his (older) vendors that the market is in dire straits and they need to drop their price now or they'll be taking a bigger hit in 2009. Last few days have seen a large surge in the number of properties coming onto the market in east Dulwich. A rise in supply generally means a fall in prices. Whether this trend keeps up remains to be seen. If the state of the market deters buyers to such an extent that supply starts to dwindle, then prices will stop falling and may stabilize. However, we now have a recession on the cards and the banking crisis of a century threatening to tip America into a depression. I think a lot of buyers will be waiting to see what kind of fallout this crisis creates, as it could change the economic landscape beyond recognition.

local estate agent Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I have no reason to make things up in this forum, > cos no one knows where or who I work for.... at the risk of causing unintended offence, I should point out you have a vested interest in talking up the local market. The more people buy properties, the more money you make on commission. As I've heard contradictory reports of the market from an EA in a better part of london, I reserve the right to remain skeptical.

local estate agent Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > We are selling properties at the same price as > what we were last year in most cases. > Some cases (depending on the desparation of the > Vendor) have dropped much further, but only on the > proviso they can get the money reduced off there > onward purchase (usually buying outside of London, > where prices are dropping more). what do you mean by "last year" - early 2007 or late 2007? prices changed a hell of a lot in east dulwich over 2007, up 20% in some cases. How are prices now compared to peak in october last year? I've seen major reductions in asking prices, many of which are below completion prices last year. Yet according to hometrack, buyers in SE22 are paying only 88% of asking prices at the moment, so actual sale prices must be well below 2007 peak prices.

AcedOut Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Now is too soon to take advantage of the situation > in my opinion. There are still some cherries out > there though, but it depends on the vendors' > desperation to sell. I will be waiting another 6 > months at least. It's a good place to be if > you're a first time buyer or looking to move up > the property ladder. Time is on your side. > > As for city jobs, last I checked, they contribute > to around 8% of GDP. If you could look at GDP > regionally for London, that's obviously going to > be significantly higher. The reduction in > salaries/bonuses and jobs is going to have a huge > knock-on affect on the housing market. The best > thing you can do right now is put all your money > in Swiss Franks (or any other mostly hard > currency). Our currency is going to weaken > dramatically over the coming years (as is the > USD). Printing money doesn't come for free and > with prices going up in China etc anyway, our > import costs are going to go through the roof. > > If you must invest in property, then go buy land > near the beach in Cambodia. The Chinese are only > getting richer and that's going to be a huge > holiday destination for them. > > All just my personal opinion. you may well be right about the pound and dollar. Depreciating pound is a double whammy for property owners: not only is the value of homes currently falling, but the value of the pound vs the euro or other currencies will probably fall faster. If inflation keeps up, even steady house prices are actually falling in real terms, which amounts to a triple whammy. All three factor make uk property a dreadful investment from an international point of view, which is very bad news for the top end of the london property market. mind you, houses in france are still relatively cheap..

local estate agent Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > It has got busier - not selling as much as we have > in the past, as alot of people are still very > concerned of the market! > But, the level of enquiries have gone up > massively! I chatted to the manager of one of the estate agents in clapham just under two weeks ago about the state of the s. london market. He said the market was still dead and city workers are keeping away because of fear of job losses (note this was before the oollapse of lehmans and all that followed). He advised me to keep out of the market for the time being. Since then, we've had the biggest banking crisis for 70 years and thousands of redundancies at lehman bros. are you sure enquiries are going up "massively" or are you just seeing the usual september activity after the end of the summer lull?

local estate agent Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Just for the record, things have picked up some > what, so plenty to do thanks... can we trust you to be honest about the state of the local market? It's hard to believe london prices are in recovery after the sh*tstorm of the last two weeks. Note also that mortgage approvals have fallen further to a new record low: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7630976.stm and if you want to know what this means for house prices in the next six months (and have a head for charts), look at this: http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/property_transactions/ and this: http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/house_price_predictor/

the collapse of Lehman Bros & takeover of merrill Lynch isn't going to help house prices in East Dulwich. 5000 people made redundant in one fell swoop. A lot of city workers in other firms are also feeling insecure about their jobs and will be putting house buying plans on hold. The market is now being squeezed at both ends: first-time buyers are running scared of negative equity or can't get mortgage finance; city whizzkids are losing their jobs and/or bonuses and won't be buying the top-end stuff.

red devil Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Don't think the falling market accounts for all of > the 41% drop, this property was on the market well > before the recent downturn (about 18 months ago), > can't remember the price but think it was around > ?225k, an agent at the time told me it had major > structural issues which would set a buyer back > circa ?30-40k, obviously the owner didn't get a > structural survey when they bought it in '06, bit > of a double whammy though, structural problems and > a falling market, at this price it looks like the > owner has lost the battle and the mortgage company > is trying to offload it quickly, indeed a sign of > the times... last sold for ?250,000 in march 2006. It was being marketed june 2008 at 245,000. Price dropped to 170,000 on July 10th, then dropped again to 150,000 at end of august. The mortgage company have an offer of 140,000 which they will presumably accept if no better offers. I assume it's a repossession. I feel sorry for the owner. spotted another repo on upland road - a standard 3-bed victorian terrace (currently split into two flats) asking ?290,000. These distressed sales are setting the benchmarks for future prices and give some idea of how far things may fall over remainder of 2008 and into 2009.

ibilly99 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-17014261.rs > p?pa_n=1&tr_t=buy&mam_disp=true > > Land Registry > 14 Mar 2006 5a Dunstans Road, Southwark, > London,Greater London SE22 0HQ Flat (New build) > Leasehold ?250,000 > > > ouch it is quite shocking and I think a sign of the times. I hope the owner is OK.

I think a lot of people will support the tram proposal simply because their properties are near the route and hence likely to rise in value. The Mayor clearly needs to avoid pressure from such quarters and look at the true benefits.

anyone know the best way to get to gatwick airport by public transport? e.g. I could do: 1. train from ED to east croydon, connection to gatwick 2. train to London Bridge, connection to gatwick 3. train from Denmark Hill to victoria, gatwick express or get a cab, though that might cost a lot..

local estate agent Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7528248.stm > > Copy and paste the above link, it clearly shows > that although prices have come down, they will be > up 25% by 2013. So, if anyone is looking to buy > and stay there for a few years, then get on and do > it!! the prediction of a 25% rise is based on shortage of supply of housing. The only problem with the logic is that the housing shortage should have pushed up rents as much as it's pushed up prices. The fact that house prices have risen to giddy heights while rents have merely kept pace with wage inflation suggests the supply shortages isn't the underlying reason for high house prices. True cause of rampant house price inflation was cheap credit and speculative investment in property after investors fled the stockmarket around 2000. House prices will eventually start rising again, but not until cost of buying and renting are closer to parity. That means we're in for some kind of correction that either drops house prices, raises rents (and wages), or some combination of both.

yes, it's fine and safe. Small coffee shop there open only in the mornings, when it's busiest.

???? Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Benmorg - I didn't believe you so I went and > checked and you are right...it just shows how long > it'll take before we're back to summer 2007 > again...of course, people tend to think nominally > rather than in real terms so I suspect it'll seem > less (especially with inflation at 4%+) it's wage inflation that matters most - not sure what that is at the moment. But yes, in real terms the kind of prices houses were selling for in summer 2007 won't be seen for a long time, probably more than a decade, or possibly never, if house prices return to historic earnings multiples. In nominal terms I'm sure they will recover eventually. Negative equity just a temporary state of affairs but must still be quite nerve-wracking to go through.

ClareC Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Yes, there is a housing shortage in the UK. > Preventing people buying to let isnt going to > change that. If there were no properties > purchased to let, the demand for houses is still > larger than the supply so the prices will still be > high albeit maybe not quite as high given the > slight decrease in demand. there's a fallacy in this reasoning. Many people say house prices are high because supply is limited. If this were true, rents would also be very high as the accommodation shortage would affect rental properties too. In reality, rents have only risen in line with salaries over the last 10 years or so, while house prices have risen disproportionately strongly. The cause of high house price inflation wasn't constrained supply - it was cheap credit and speculative demand following the dotcom crash. Exactly the same factors have pushed up house prices in many other countries, e.g. denmark, spain, ireland,usa, australia, new zealand. Note these aren't all "small islands" with a lack of housing supply. now we have a situation in the UK where there is an excess supply of properties for sale and falling house prices. When house prices reach a point where buying and renting are at the same affordability level, it will be fair to use the constrained supply theory to explain prices. But until then, it's a fallacious argument.

???? Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > To illustrate in REAL terms, house prices didn't > reach their 1989 peak until 1996 after the last > recession (which you don't think happened) this isn't correct. In real terms UK house prices didnt return to peak 1989 values until 2002. In nominal terms (actual rather than inflation-adjusted prices), it wasn't until 1998 that we got back to peak values. So recovery took 9 years in nominal terms and 13 years in real terms. as for how long house prices fall - the crash didn't reach the bottom until 1994 for nominal prices and 1996 in real terms. So actual nominal house prices fell for 5 years before hitting the bottom. This is true of London (where the crash was worst) as well as for rest of UK. London prices fell 29% nominally. interestingly, prices were stuck in the doldrums for several years around the bottom, with very little movement before they started rising again. if this pattern repeats, it will be very easy for anyone waiting for the bottom to time their purchase correctly. As they say, the housing market turns like an oil tanker - very slowly, stubbornly, and predictably - which makes it much easier to play the market than with say shares etc.

lard Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > What is more laughable is Kirsty and Phil's > current crusade against stamp duty, using it as a > reason people aren't buying at the moment. > > What they fail to remember is that stamp duty > didn't stop people buying last year when prices > were just as high. > > They argue a price fall is bad - when in reality > the stamp duty of 1% can easily be "saved" by a > price reduction of only 1%, so a 20% fall is much > more beneficial for first time buyers than the > scrapping of stamp duty. > > If anything stamp duty should have been raised > much higher 5 years ago to stop the ridiculous > price growth. > > Plus foreign nationals paying an additional 20% or > suchlike in stamp duty. > > Their maths is quite staggeringly upside down, and > such a vested interest it shouldn't be allowed on > television. it's interesting that kirsty and phil have done special features in their new magazine program on west london (kirsty's home) and SW London (phil's home). Oh and a presenter job for kirsty's sister and interviews with staff from Phil's property finder company about how to find properties. It's amazing they get away with such self-serving ramping and nepotism. re stamp duty, it now looks like Labour will introduce some kind of stamp duty reform by the end of the year - either a reduction or a stamp duty holiday. K & P will doubtless claim credit.

*Bob* Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Turn-on the wankometer: > > Considering how much they enjoy entertaining > (ding), it may seem strange that Ed and Lucy Rigg > have swapped their three-bedroom house in East > Dulwich for a one-bedroom basement flat in central > London. But when you see their friends crowded > (ding) into the small sunken garden (ding) or > gathered around the long black dining table in the > open-plan living room (ding ding), it is clear > that downsizing has in no way cramped this > sociable couple?s style (ding ding ding). > > PLEASE BUY OUR JUICE > > galleries theatres nightlife cobbled mews three > pugs natural light open-plan low coffee table > lime-washed oak mirrored end wall cocktail market > bars and nightclubs (ding ding ding ding) > > PLEASE BUY OUR JUICE >:D<

*Bob* Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Here are some pictures of my house, wankily > dressed for said photoshoot. > > Here are some details of my cool life.. see how > cool I am. > > > WHO GIVES A SHIT :))