ibilly99

Some guide prices to auctions here. http://www.auction.co.uk/residential/onlineCatalogue.asp?S=C&O=A&P=6 Real shocker is 479 Lordship Lane the modern wood decked apartments up near the BeefEater - ?90k ! Click on the online catalogue to view.

We are entering the most profound economic downturn since 1929 - it must be obvious to all but the delusionally over-invested what will happen next.

Ray Winstone - sorted ! http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=ocRGfmy8lYU

mmm I could but that would surely be madness ! In the meantime my Your Song mashup - http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=jBycLWtvc3M&feature=user

Yes indeed particuarly as she still inhabits the physical plane - can you imagine a Video tribute to Stephanie Flanders - I thought not - that would truly be a waste of time dulwichmum !

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=8TQMciXUJJo dulwich mum is a heretic - behold the new God Robert Peston is now a shimmering orb of pale blue light hovering about four feet above his chair at the BBC Television Centre. He continues to break stories on the financial crisis, but it has now taken the form of perfect knowledge beamed directly into your mind, or transmitted via a series of low, vibrating pulses. BBC director general Mark Thompson said: "Robert is risen above the physical plain. He is both the essence and the vessel for all that is and will ever be. "He is no longer Robert Peston, BBC business editor. His atoms are now woven into the very fabric of the universe. He is become pure news." The BBC has also appealed to householders to limit their electricity use as the ball of light that used to be Robert Peston continues to suck millions of volts directly from the national grid. Across London thousands of ecstatic followers poured into the streets to celebrate Peston's new form. Two goats were sacrificed outside JP Morgan as half-naked staff danced round a disco glitter ball. Meanwhile the few remaining sceptics tried to jam Peston's transmissions by wearing a plastic bucket on their head. Tom Logan, a trainee accountant, said: "He only err gets all these err stories, because he err spent much of the err last 10 years with his err nose rammed straight up err Gordon Brown's err dirt box." http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=8TQMciXUJJo

Ouch - you're not wrong dulwichmum - but no more harmless than painting or drawing or spending time on bulletin boards,just a more modern form of artistic enadvour and one you can share with the world ! Have a great day ibilly99

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=8TQMciXUJJo A tongue-in-cheek video tribute to the legendary BBC Business correspondent Robert Peston the man who can move markets. Some have cruelly likended him to the evil planet scavening robots from the hit TV series Dr Who. He is now a hit in the UK because of his panic mode style of delivery and his near ubiquitous presence on BBC News as markets meltdown and we get ever closer to Great Depression 2.0 Cometh the hour cometh the man Music is the title theme from Forest Gump

For folks that have been on Mars this is a historically unprecedented financial crisis - as the front page of the FT says we are on a precipice - nobody is trusting anybody and the credit markets are seizing up LIBOR is soaring and huge wealth is being destroyed - there are no road maps for this but if you are buying at the moment DON'T this is a mega crash and has been expected for a very long time. Moving forward there is just not the money in the global financial system and where it is they will be very reluctant to loan it to those that have just p**ssed it away. Mortgage resets will be at much higher rates and a load or repos will hit the market prices are going only one way I'm afraid.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-17014261.rsp?pa_n=1&tr_t=buy&mam_disp=true Land Registry 14 Mar 2006 5a Dunstans Road, Southwark, London,Greater London SE22 0HQ Flat (New build) Leasehold ?250,000 ouch

Recession Anecdotal I regularly shop in Lidl Peckham and buy my essentials there - the prices are unbelievable and there is plenty of fresh fruit and veg e.g. pineapple 99p - Somerfield 2 quid!. I can then get the luxuries from Sainsbury?s - most of the shoppers are Poles, Aficans and other low income groups but I have noticed in the last few weeks an increase in middle class folk appearing - you can always tell when it's their first visit because they just can't believe the prices. I suspect they wouldn't have been seen dead in there during the boom! Times must be tough. BTW in a Netto/Lidl lockdown Lidl triumphs !

Not China ruling the world but the continuation of a process that is now evidently apparent. Look at the debt figures I posted before - common sense - tells us that this is not sustainable- the boom has blown up and we are in the early stages of a transformational change. All empires rise and fall and every dog has it's day. Tony Blair said in the recent Blair years what I what to get across to the British people is the speed of change and how we must adapt to this what he meant was the old rules have changed we live in a globalised world. I work with a number of mainland Chinese students and I can?t believe at how focused and hard working they are ? it?s almost inhuman and they don?t seem to know the meaning of a work-life balance ? you just can?t compete with them on a level playing field. I am not a supporter of globalisation because it ultimately means a levelling down of the world and lack of local control? Asia rises and we fall ? already most manufactured good come from over there ? with the money they make on these exports coming back to our banking system to be speculated in the fashion we have just seen resulting in the biggest asset inflation in history.And they have lost BIG in the credit crunch ? how would you feel if you had worked hard, created wealth to see it trashed by a declining dollar which is the way the US tries to obviate it?s responsibilities as a reserve currency. Well its not working there?s the alternative now of the Euro ? they have choices. Our financial system was supposed to be the magic genie that kept us afloat and paid the UK?s post-industrial bills. The cash rich nations now are Asia and the Middle East and they have already been burned by the collapse of the dollar and the value of their western investments so this money is now flowing east not here. It will be interesting to see how many banks follow RBS with rights issues and how angry shareholders will be at seeing their investments tank and how many of those investors will sit on their hands. Well the future lies in hard work, inventiness and facing reality. Our housing boom has done nothing to contribute to thta except shuffled deckchairs on the Titanic. The prices we see in the estate agents are all pretty much fantasy at the moment. If you want any chance of selling you need to lead the pack with steep price reductions. Doesn't the auction price of 155,000 next to the Texaco say something? I bought my house for 80,000 in 1983 and when it got to 169,000 in 2001 it felt overpriced then as for 600k at the top this is absolute madness. I feel for young people and first time buyers believe me they are angry at being priced out as baby boomers have lauded their 'wealth' and the value of their houses, and TV property programmes and glossy supplements have just added to their sense of injustice. I would be priced out on my salary now as would most of the home owners out there. There will not be a return to the cheap credit boom for maybe a generation till banks and society forget the pain that this is causing and will be causing - ergo the market is unsupported so as I say 40% seems firmly conservative. My parents had the view safe as houses how true is that now? When I left university I had no debt, jobs were fairly easy to come by and property was relatively affordable. We need to return to a more balanced and fairer society and if a price crash can hasten this on then so be it. I am neither an optimist nor a pessimist ? just a realist I hope.

The height of the madness was Xmas to June last year the price of a 3 bed Victorian terrace went 420,500 with my neighbours house going for 600k in June - this led to sellers continuing to push the ceiling ever higher. Same thing happened during the dot com bust of 2001 which I knew was crazy when every man and his dog had a idea of a website that would make their fortune. A landlord of my acquinatance persuaded his mum to by CISCO shares.She subssequently lost 70k in the bust.A saying from the Great Depression was when the shoeshine boy gives you stock tips time to bail out. A`lot of this was fuelled by city bonuses looking for a home for their money.Feels like another era now - why did we all become bonkers about property ? My brother was in buy-to-let and had a great run from 2001 - he cashed out last Xmas rightly fearful.The Foxtons owner cashed out in June 2007 - as much as I hate them have to say he called the top perfectly.How many sharp haircuts and spiv patter does a empty shop need? A rising market rightly climbs a wall of worry.If you want to know what is really going on google Peter Schiff,Roubini,Itulip for starters - the money-printing presses of American federal reserve are running red hot at the moment which is why the dollar is tanking and we're all paying more for our neccesities and why the world's financial ministers keep meeting in a huddle.The light at the end of the tunnel is the oncoming train !

If we lived in a just society where renting is the new norm then tenants ought to have a lot more rights than they currently have.Having some security about where you live ought to the the bedrock of a fair and just society.Governments should control the market.I say this as an owner occupier who appreciates the stabilty and underpinning of my life that owing my house have given me - but when I bought the banks and buidling societies ensured careful and rational judgements were made on the biggest financial puchase most people would ever make.You needed a big deposit (10%) and there weren't insane multiple of incomes which helped to ensure somewhat that the market was more balanced. High house prices benefit no one in fact they act in reverse - they focus a society on creating empty value rather than promoting true economic activity such as making real things that we need and require.The Kirsty Allsops and all the property /porn' TV programmes out there have contributed to this current mindless mindset. All these very clever and highly paid people in the City who have got us into this mess could have been working in the real economy discovering things like a cure for cancer,or becoming doctors and engineers instead they were bribed/corrupted into using their undoubted talents and intelligence into creating incredibly complex instruments of financial mass destruction which is where we are now at. The people who really matter are the nurses and doctors who nurse your ill mother back to health,the men who empty our bins,or drive the buses that get us to work - the people who make the world a better place and for their sins they are paid relatively peanuts and have no hope at current prices of owning a place to live. I hesitated posting my views on local forum but if I help to inform rational judgements and prevent one person from making an irrational decision of buying into this market then I will consider that a post worthwhile.

The Bears come out to play ! Seriously nobody knows how this will play out - we haven't been here before in this position - but if you look at the debt mountain from the World CIA Factbook - we're second to the US that's 10 trillion dollars compared to the US with 12 and our population is only 1/5 of the US.We are the most indebted nation in the world per capita and our leaders are deceieving us because they only think short term - winning the next election - we've been had - there was no new paradigm just a house of cards built on credit. As it says in the Bible - the wise man built his house upon rock. Countries for which no information is available are not included in this list. Rank Country Debt - external Date of Information 1 World $ 54,310,000,000,000 2004 est. 2 United States $ 12,250,000,000,000 30 June 2007 3 United Kingdom $ 10,450,000,000,000 30 June 2007 4 Germany $ 4,489,000,000,000 30 June 2007 5 France $ 4,396,000,000,000 30 June 2007 Rents - hmm don't know about that if reverse immigartion takes place as our economy goes into a downturn then it should be a renters market I would have thought.

Gordon?s Brown?s No More Boom and Bust (in a dour Scots accent) is SPECTACUARLY falling apart. This chapter of the cheap credit fuelled asset binge of the last decade is now unravelling; we won't be going back to 'normal? for along time yet if ever for our society. House prices have departed a long way from fundamentals and the well overdue correction is upon us. George Soros one of the most successful investors in history says this is the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and sub prime is only the first wave.Alt A mortgages are the next shoe to drop and they are about twice as big as sub-prime (type in ALT A in you tube for video) and that?s not to mention record commodity prices and the coming bond crisis so the financial situation is going to worsen and deepen. What are the factors that will be driving house prices? 1. City job losses could be as high as 40,000 - a lot of bonus money has been coming this way which will significantly reduce hard cash coming into the area. 2. First timers both priced out and unable to borrow same multiples as before. 3. Sentiment seriously turned - mantra of prices can only go up turning sour ? why buy now when prices will be cheaper by waiting? 4. A property developer builder friend of mine getting seriously worried. There are just no buyers out there and he is highly leveraged - or where there are the chains are breaking down as mortgage deals break downs, buyers get cold feet or gazunder. If you are selling get your prices at the head of the queue - he who panics first at least get some of their money back 5. Disposable income getting hit on fuel, energy food. 6. Mass Eastern Europe immigration reversing as salaries ,optimism and their currencies improve in their home counties and they pack their bags and go home to seek their fortune thus reducing demand for the buy-to-let landlords who serviced their needs. As for counter arguments there is nothing like the deluded optimism of the seriously invested ? as they say you don?t ask a barber if you need a haircut! So what does all this mean for East Dulwich prices? I've lived in East Dulwich for 20 years now and my house at the peak (which was last May) was around 600k - which is absolutely ridiculous - houses should be for living in and not an investment. In my heart I feel it should only be worth half of that and resent the inflation and obsession with empty speculation that has rotted our society for the last decade. As an economy we are increasingly dependant on the Financials, Insurance, Real Estate and service economy. They should be servicing the real economy not be massive casino for speculators. I've lived and worked in Asia and once you've seen how hard and diligently they work and save, the strengths of their families and schools it?s no wonder they are winning. Whilst China and India roars we've been running a pyramid scheme a ponzi scheme of debt. I do feel sorry for all those that have bought in the last few years - you have bought into a highly inflated market - the biggest bubble in history and where was our prudent Gordon Brown steadfastly on watch to look after his people? I have friends in the Hedge Fund business and they love this deluded optimism as they short the markets and whilst optimism remains they have a window to build positions which benefit from a fall. Things are really scary out there. Conclusion Governments are scared the banks are basically bust and we could be heading for Great Depression 2.0 .Prices will drop significantly over the next few tears as global adjustment means wealth and power move over to Asia. I predict East Dulwich prices in 2012 to be at least 40% down from their peak of 2007. The good news - hopefully the shallow consumerist society which defines individuals by what they own rather than who they are will have been seriously disrupted. People will seek happiness in real things like the smile of a child or a summer?s day or buying books from a jumble sale or a walk in the park and ever increasing debt bondage will be a thing of the past .I does hope so in fact I?m banking on it!

just had a chat with my spy in a South London estate agent - he is an assistant manager with recent experience of E. Dulwich and Streatham. He tells me prices keep going down a little every month and his firm now estimate them to be 12-13% below the 2007 peak. Buyers still in short supply and stock levels going up. He says BTL landlords are happy to offload at the moment as the price falls are peanuts compared to the amount of appreciation made over the last 5-10 years, so for many BTL vendors there is plenty of profit if they cash in now. The fig of 12-13% sounds a lot. Perhaps it's a little distorted by EA spin - it could be the line they are using when talking to vendors to push valuations down. Wait until winter at least is the advice if you're planning to buy. No sign of stabilization yet.

I've heard from a savvy developer friend when they come in they will charge a 1% fee and hold it at this rate till they squeeze the less able competition out. Once they've got their market share then will return it to their normal fee. Sharks real sharks. Track property reductions at www.propertysnake.co.uk